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Message
re: The plane was NOT shot down!!!
Posted on 1/9/20 at 8:33 am to Honkus
Posted on 1/9/20 at 8:33 am to Honkus
quote:
The report I just read said fire and they were heading back to ariport.
Every track of the plane's trajectory shows a u-turn back to the airport before the final crash.
That leads me to believe it was not a missile strike. Seems unlikely that a non-military aircraft carrier would have any controlled maneuverability after an AA missile strike. Would have to be a very luck circumstance, imho.
Now - I would like it to be a missile strike - for any number of reasons = some contradictory with each other but all good.
- Iran command and control very sloppy - and made a big mistake. < most likely reason
- Iran eliminating trouble makers < could be good or bad.
Sure sounds like a missile strike - but I still don't undersand the controllability after the strike.
2
Posted on 1/9/20 at 8:43 am to ChineseBandit58
quote:
Every track of the plane's trajectory shows a u-turn back to the airport before the final crash.
That leads me to believe it was not a missile strike. Seems unlikely that a non-military aircraft carrier would have any controlled maneuverability after an AA missile strike. Would have to be a very luck circumstance, imho
I thought about this... now I'm not sure what kind of common language Ukranian pilots are speaking to Iranian air controllers or whatever, but what if the plane WAS NOT supposed to take off and did... then was told to turn back to the airport, and at that point got shot down while they were trying to land.
I don't know anything about flying, but that seems very plausible... although I'm not sure if any other commercial flights were leaving the airport or landing around the same time?
My guess would be none...
Posted on 1/9/20 at 9:28 am to ChineseBandit58
quote:
Seems unlikely that a non-military aircraft carrier would have any controlled maneuverability after an AA missile strike.
Keep a couple of things in mind. The warheads in AA missiles aren’t particularly large. It’s not like the movies where they hit a plane and the plane dissolves in an enormous explosion. Most are heat seekers and go for the engine, disable the engine and damage the fuselage and then things tear apart from there due to the high speeds that military jets travel. Large explosions are caused by the fuel carried on the plane.
Commercial jets are huge compared to a military fighter and have multiple engines. So it is entirely likely they could take a hit to one engine and have enough residual control to start to head back before the wing gives way and/or the fire from the engine reaches the fuel in the wing tanks.
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