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re: CFB Advanced Metrics and Computer Polls, Week 12
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:49 pm to KosmoCramer
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:49 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:You say that like all the OSU posters don't come out in full force when the opposite happens.
Hold on to your butt
At least LSU is 1, otherwise the wolves will be all over the downvotes.
0
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:50 pm to xiv
quote:It's not about understanding or not understanding this happens.
tOSU's undefeated record comes with zero FCS victories. Anyone who melts whatsoever about any of this is simply not well-informed and unwilling to do the homework required to understand the various perspectives and factors that contribute to all this. They're unserious, and it's easy to ignore their half-assed opinions.
It's about how absurd it is that it does happen to the degree it happens.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:52 pm to xiv
It will probably never happen, but how awesome would it be if the NCAA or another body got together to create out of conference schedules. Hell, make it a lottery.
At least just one week of OOC isnt set until spring ball. Mix up all the P5 schools and force teams to play one P5 game a year. And then exclude FCS from P5 schedules. It would help crossover data exponentially and would be awesome for fans.
At least just one week of OOC isnt set until spring ball. Mix up all the P5 schools and force teams to play one P5 game a year. And then exclude FCS from P5 schedules. It would help crossover data exponentially and would be awesome for fans.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:52 pm to shel311
What exactly are you talking about?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:52 pm to xiv
quote:Wait, what?
Here's my rankings (included in the Massey Composite):
How does one get this on the Massey Composite?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:52 pm to xiv
quote:You already responded to exactly what I was talking about.
What exactly are you talking about?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:53 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:I'll let you have your fantasy, but count me out.
It will probably never happen, but how awesome would it be if the NCAA or another body got together to create out of conference schedules. Hell, make it a lottery.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:53 pm to shel311
quote:
It's not about understanding or not understanding this happens.
It's about how absurd it is that it does happen to the degree it happens.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:54 pm to shel311
quote:I've done stuff like this professionally and, therefore, know people in the business, so to speak.
How does one get this on the Massey Composite?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:54 pm to xiv
quote:I missed that statement, but it's crazy that it has a 17 to 3 upvote to down-vote ratio since there is no way someone can say that neither the Cinci and Wisconsin victories aren't quality wins, especially given their margin (42 and 31 respectively). If beating Wisconsin by 31 while with a 431 to 191 yardage differential (in some pretty terrible weather) isn't a quality win, then I don't what is a quality win. FPI the game score of that win (its overall performance) as a 97 out of 100.
Ridiculous thing to say.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:54 pm to xiv
quote:
I'll let you have your fantasy, but count me out.
Fine. Mandate 8 conference games, 1 P5 game, and no FCS.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:54 pm to KosmoCramer
Tell us more about everyone's LSU biases while ignoring all of your very obvious Ohio St biases.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:55 pm to shel311
quote:
Tell us more about everyone's LSU biases while ignoring all of your very obvious Ohio St biases.
Not once have I said I'm not biased. We all are.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:59 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:100%
I missed that statement, but it's crazy that it has a 17 to 3 upvote to down-vote ratio since there is no way someone can say that neither the Cinci and Wisconsin victories aren't quality wins, especially given their margin (42 and 31 respectively). If beating Wisconsin by 31 while with a 431 to 191 yardage differential (in some pretty terrible weather) isn't a quality win, then I don't what is a quality win. FPI the game score of that win (its overall performance) as a 97 out of 100.
School - wins - opponents' wins - opponents' opponents' wins
LSU - 10 - 61 - 680
tOSU - 10 - 62 - 648
Alabama - 9 - 55 - 634
Cincinnati - 9 - 58 - 648
Wisconsin - 8 - 63 - 637
Florida - 9 - 61 - 656
Not only is Cincinnati a quality win, but it's a better win than the Alabama win regardless of the score.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 3:59 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:Not very much since I find a lot of errors. It's quite frustrating since I want to be more succinct but end up being overly wordy, without a poor command of the words I'm using.
How much do you like reading words you typed?
That's why my co-authors on research papers usually either have to edited my portions down significantly or just have me focus on the results section since I do have good command of the stats and analyses.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:18 pm to shel311
quote:But this is a bit ironic since when presented with unbiased and objective metrics (albeit with their flaws) you've been arguing to throw any out that have Bama rated higher than LSU, despite being only slightly higher and despite being higher in some of the best and most widely used metrics:
Tell us more about everyone's LSU biases while ignoring all of your very obvious Ohio St biases.
quote:And then you proceeded to list two things that are accounted for in those metrics (e.g., SOS and the head to head loss is accounted directly in it), but argue that those two things should be the sole basis that those two things should be the sole basis for LSU being ahead of Bama; however, you do not provide any way to quantify how they should be rated, what else should be included, nor your basis for your absolute weighting of those two variables.
they just have no business being anywhere near picking who goes to the playoffs if Bama is ahead of LSU right now with a H2H loss at home and LSU with a decidedly tougher SOS.
So while you're arguing for the inclusion of two things that can be measured objectively (and are measured and included metrics) and are clearly logical and important to include, the objectivity of your rationale stop there.
But the worst part is that you are arguing to disregard any objective measure, no matter how valid, reliable, and empirically-supported the measures are IF they do not show the outcome that you BELIEVE (and understandably so) is correct and without any valid justification for your rationale.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:31 pm to xiv
quote:I just can't agree with you there. I think you could make an argument for it being a better quality win BECAUSE OF THE SCORE and only including score differential in relation to the expected differential based on the metrics.
Not only is Cincinnati a quality win, but it's a better win than the Alabama win regardless of the score.
That being said, even though I'm about the objective and quantifiable measures first and foremost, I can't deny that there aren't some unquantifiable differences and subjective (for the teams themselves) differences in a rivalry game one of the very best teams in the country, with the greatest coach of all time, one of the best players in the country at QB, with major playoff implications on the line, and on the road in front of 100,000+ fans.
Again. FPI rates the performance from a scale to 0-100, and the Alabama win was rated as 99 while the Cinci win was rated as 91. So even objectively measuring the performances shows that the Alabama victory was better and OSU's Wisconsin win has a much better case than the Cinci win.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:40 pm to buckeye_vol
More or less, a rating system that serves as a predictor (Sagarin) might calculate LSU's Bama win as more meaningful than tOSU's Cincinnati win, whereas a system that serves as an aggregate (mine) will do the opposite.
How good is Team A? and How big are the beasts slain by Team A? are two very different questions, and there's no right or wrong approach here.
How good is Team A? and How big are the beasts slain by Team A? are two very different questions, and there's no right or wrong approach here.
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:46 pm to xiv
quote:
Not only is Cincinnati a quality win, but it's a better win than the Alabama win regardless of the score.
It’s a little early in the week to be hitting the crack pipe brotha bear
Posted on 11/18/19 at 4:49 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:I've been thinking about something like this for years and how it would make it easier to evaluate teams as randomization allow for the error in the evaluation to be more random, independent, and unbiased, with more equitable schedules, better crossover data, fewer situational effects (e.g., playing in various weather conditions), and fewer feedback circular feedback loops (e.g., Teams A through D are initially considered quality teams; they all play each and no matter what happens they're all quality wins and losses because they are all quality teams because of all of their quality wins and losses).
It will probably never happen, but how awesome would it be if the NCAA or another body got together to create out of conference schedules. Hell, make it a lottery.
At least just one week of OOC isnt set until spring ball. Mix up all the P5 schools and force teams to play one P5 game a year. And then exclude FCS from P5 schedules. It would help crossover data exponentially and would be awesome for fans.
I would say that the biggest impediment is that teams would be traveling across the country more often (WVU does it a lot though), but there is enough money to go around that they can cover some more flights. And it's not like it would take much more time since they would be busing to closer games, and personally, I enjoy flying (and get less motion sickness reading and working) much more than taking a bus. Plus it's a lot safer.
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