re: So Vegas has it LSU -13

I had a guy try to talk shite on CFB reddit the other day noting that the last time LSU was a two touchdown favorite in TS, UF won. I noted his observation, but then reminded him of the 3 games before that, particularly the 2011 matchup.

We were favored by 2 TDs in 2011 at home and I think we all remember how that went.

My point is that this is a new year, with new players, and relatively new coaches. Anything can happen. Vegas sets these lines, and as much as I hate to say it, if you look at the 10 year history of the lines of this matchup, vegas is usually within a few points.

Here is the historical matchup. If it's within 2 points I will label it as dead on.

2018: UF 27 - LSU 19 SPREAD: UF +1 (Off by 9)
2017: UF 16 - LSU 17 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Dead On)
2016: UF 16 - LSU 10 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 20)
2015: UF 28 - LSU 35 SPREAD: LSU -6 (Dead On)
2014: UF 27 - LSU 30 SPREAD: UF +2.5 (Dead On)
2013: UF 6 - LSU 17 SPREAD: LSU -9 (Dead On)
2012: UF 14 - LSU 6 SPREAD: UF +1.5 (Off by 9.5)
2011: UF 11 - LSU 41 SPREAD: LSU -14 (Off by 16)
2010: UF 29 - LSU 33 SPREAD: UF -6.5 (Off by 10.5)
2009: UF 13 - LSU 3 SPREAD: LSU +10 (Dead On)

The spread is all over the place with which team I chose because I went with the home team's odds.

That's 5 of the last 10 games they've predicted within 2 points. Now that I've seen that I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but in a game that seems to be so difficult for fans to even predict a winner, I'd say that's pretty impressive. Although when they aren't dead on, it's typically by more than a TD.