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Message
Hypothetical 16 Team Playoff If The Season Ended Today:
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:02 am
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:02 am
I created a pace-adjusted computer projection model that spits out a unique final score for any FBS v FBS matchup. It’s basically a measurement strictly of on field performance adjusted by opponent, not roster talent or any other other subjective (but relevant) factors. Right now, some of the results are a bit outrageous, mostly because few teams have played 3 FBS opponents and some have only played 1, but week after week, the results will normalize.
That said, I thought it would be fun to simulate a 16 team playoff after each week with seeding based on the AP and then when it’s available, the CFP committee rankings. Some of the stranger outcomes are Oregon over Auburn and Clemson (hanging 77 on Nevada seems to skew reality here) and the Wisconsin defense dominating. Round 1 has some really spicy matchups and you’ll be interested to see how far LSU goes.
Round 1:
#8 Auburn v. #9 Florida
#7 Notre Dame v. #10 Utah
#6 Ohio State v. #11 Michigan
#5 Oklahoma v. #12 Texas
#4 LSU v. #13 Penn State
#3 Georgia v. #13 Wisconsin
#2 Alabama v. #15 UCF
#1 Clemson v. #16 Oregon
LINK
That said, I thought it would be fun to simulate a 16 team playoff after each week with seeding based on the AP and then when it’s available, the CFP committee rankings. Some of the stranger outcomes are Oregon over Auburn and Clemson (hanging 77 on Nevada seems to skew reality here) and the Wisconsin defense dominating. Round 1 has some really spicy matchups and you’ll be interested to see how far LSU goes.
Round 1:
#8 Auburn v. #9 Florida
#7 Notre Dame v. #10 Utah
#6 Ohio State v. #11 Michigan
#5 Oklahoma v. #12 Texas
#4 LSU v. #13 Penn State
#3 Georgia v. #13 Wisconsin
#2 Alabama v. #15 UCF
#1 Clemson v. #16 Oregon
LINK
7
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:08 am to MikeinTN
Did you create this or get this from somewhere? if you made it what type of model did you use?
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:14 am to The Ostrich
I created it. At the beginning I wanted to re-rank the national stat rankings based on opponents due to the wide variance in play styles, many of the gross numbers like pass yards per game are kind of meaningless, or at least could be more meaningful if adjusted by opponent.
The score projections are essentially opponent adjusted average scoring for and against but adjusted to each team’s unique pace of play and the implied pace of play in any specific combination of 2 teams matched up.
The score projections are essentially opponent adjusted average scoring for and against but adjusted to each team’s unique pace of play and the implied pace of play in any specific combination of 2 teams matched up.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:21 am to MikeinTN
LSU in the final is less surprising than ND beating Bama.
Fun thing to track.
Fun thing to track.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:24 am to GRTiger
Oregon and Wisconsin will come down to earth and it should be much more chalky in future weeks.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:25 am to MikeinTN
Wisconsin straight pimp-slapped their way through the whole tournament
Posted on 9/16/19 at 10:28 am to MikeinTN
I would rather have a 16 team playoff than conf championship games and 4 team playoff
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:04 am to Topwater Trout
Ucf would be ranked higher at 0 losses
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:14 am to MikeinTN
How do you have #4 LSU in second round playing #6 Ohio state with us being the 4th ranked team and them being the 6th ranked team? Assuming this is a bracket style playoff with #1-#16 seeding, we would be playing the winner of #5 OU vs #12 Texas in the second round.
Is it because Penn State and Wis are tied in the initial rankings? Still doesn't make sense to me.
Is it because Penn State and Wis are tied in the initial rankings? Still doesn't make sense to me.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:24 am to honeybadger07
You’re right it looks like I derped the seeds in the bracket branches. Thanks for the correction.
Posted on 9/16/19 at 11:45 am to MikeinTN
Notre Dame...
Michigan...
Ok
Michigan...
Ok
Posted on 9/16/19 at 1:51 pm to honeybadger07
@honeybadger07 I corrected the matchups for the bracket, as you pointed out it should have been LSU v Oklahoma and Wisconsin v Ohio State
LSU 47
Oklahoma 39
Wisconsin 35
Ohio State 16
Thanks for catching that!
LSU 47
Oklahoma 39
Wisconsin 35
Ohio State 16
Thanks for catching that!
Posted on 9/16/19 at 3:24 pm to MikeinTN
Thanks!
Posted on 9/16/19 at 4:01 pm to MikeinTN
I've long said it should be 8 team playoff and not 4. Your top 8 include:
SEC
ACC
Big 10
Big 12
Notre Dame
Only gripe would be from the Pac 12 folks feeling left out.
SEC
ACC
Big 10
Big 12
Notre Dame
Only gripe would be from the Pac 12 folks feeling left out.
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