re: TS Jerry, TS Karen & More Areas to Watch - Peak Season

Needs to hurry up and hit land. Those type of systems make me nervous when we're at the peak season and it's almost 6 days out. It could go straight into some super fuel waters and then it would just need some other favorable conditions to see it start to gather. It has already looked like it was getting a little better organized.

I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path.

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Can't say but no model is showing anything of significance. For several days now models have been showing an area of disturbed weather moving across the Gulf but none have shown a hurricane. Based purely off the models, probably not much but maybe a low end TS

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You know very well the models struggle with intensity.

Multiple models called for no development for the system that became Dorian and even the NHC had Dorian on the Florida coast as a tropical storm mere days before she was a Cat 3+.

Way too soon to be making any intensity forecasts for this one.

It may be nothing but it could also become a major concern.