re: Amash is down to his challenger in polls

Michigan has an open primary so whether the D primary for the 3rd congressional district is competitive or not could have a major impact. For example, there were only 20,352 votes in the D primary in 2016 when there was only one candidate, but 62,522 in 2018 with two candidates. So if there isn’t a competitive D primary, registered Democrats could vote in the R election.

In addition, while Trump won the 3rd congressional district by 9.4% in 2016, Amash won by 22%. Now Lower may be popular as a state rep, so I think that will be more important than just being pro-Trump since Amash’s margin was much larger than Trump’s.