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re: A little math and history for you guys
Posted on 5/16/19 at 4:28 pm to Crewz
Posted on 5/16/19 at 4:28 pm to Crewz
You're drafting in hopes they will be good enough to warrant staying or being good. Most are not, therefore they need to be traded. That stat is kind of skewed because of that.
You're drafting in hopes you get that small percentage that is worth keeping around or resigns with you, obviously, like you say.
That being said, I would prefer a young/semi young proven talent that was drafted 12th over the #4 pick most of the time. Jrue is a good example. I wouldnt trade him for the #4 pick. A guaranteed borderline all-star is much better to me than a crap shoot, which is what most lottery picks are.
You gave the math and history to back it. The simple answer is that this thinking is pretty dumb and unrealistic.
You're drafting in hopes you get that small percentage that is worth keeping around or resigns with you, obviously, like you say.
That being said, I would prefer a young/semi young proven talent that was drafted 12th over the #4 pick most of the time. Jrue is a good example. I wouldnt trade him for the #4 pick. A guaranteed borderline all-star is much better to me than a crap shoot, which is what most lottery picks are.
quote:
I see the argument, quite a bit that we need to trade AD for young guys, picks, etc because "I'd rather have 9 years of X guy than 1 or two years of AD"
You gave the math and history to back it. The simple answer is that this thinking is pretty dumb and unrealistic.
1
Posted on 5/16/19 at 4:34 pm to iwyLSUiwy
People tend to be unrealistic when it comes to the future. Some of my favorite studies are the ones that show that when people project the future, their projections are wildly more optimistic than what is likely according to history.
People do the same with young guys in sports. We talk about ceilings far more than floors or basements, even if history teaches us that their outcomes will be far below those ceilings
People do the same with young guys in sports. We talk about ceilings far more than floors or basements, even if history teaches us that their outcomes will be far below those ceilings
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