re: Jrue's Plan

Impossible? No. But you can't construct a team with optimism. And there is enough data to say that it would be optimistic to think Payton's shooting will be above average.

You have to project realistically. COULD he improve? Sure. But you don't just project improvement because you want it to happen. He most likely will continue to be a below average shooter. Just like Jrue will most likely be an excellent defender next year, but it is possible he could be just average.

See how that works? When you project the opposite way - going against what you want to happen, it seems crazy to project an outlier happening. Remove bias and what you want, and predicting the future becomes much easier and you get much better at it