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re: Weather technology is becoming too good
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:27 pm to Duke
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:27 pm to Duke
quote:
It's hard not to be impressed just how right those got the situation yesterday. Just ten years ago, there wasn't nearly this quality in modeling.
You have a link to quantify just how much better the 24 hour forecast has gotten over the last decade?
2
Posted on 4/19/19 at 4:43 pm to doubleb
PDF From UAlbany From 2014 Looking At SPC Forecasting Skill
Page 4 has a nice chart to look at and see how the forecasting skill has improved over the past two decades, with full explanations of how they determined it.
Page 4 has a nice chart to look at and see how the forecasting skill has improved over the past two decades, with full explanations of how they determined it.
Posted on 4/19/19 at 10:05 pm to doubleb
quote:
You have a link to quantify just how much better the 24 hour forecast has gotten over the last decade?
It's not perfect since it's only tropical systems, but if still illustrates the point. Average track error is about 33% more accurate this decade than it was in the previous decade, and so on and so forth.
I'd you think predicting hurricanes 24 hours out is easy, this still shows the relative improvements that have been made.
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