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re: Had some fun with golf stats to predict masters:
Posted on 4/8/19 at 5:26 pm to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 4/8/19 at 5:26 pm to TheCaterpillar
There may be an opportunity for past years, and going forward, for you to adjust your weighting scale to give you better results.
Have you tried adjusting last year's tear to better approximate the final top 10?
After this year's masters, what weighting would give you a better R-factor?
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
But I would find it very interesting what changes to the system would help optimize it.
Have you tried adjusting last year's tear to better approximate the final top 10?
After this year's masters, what weighting would give you a better R-factor?
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
But I would find it very interesting what changes to the system would help optimize it.
1
Posted on 4/9/19 at 10:07 am to Mahootney
quote:
There may be an opportunity for past years, and going forward, for you to adjust your weighting scale to give you better results.
I ran a bunch of different weights and the one I've got delivered the best results.
I'll keep adjusting each year as I do store these data points in the same worksheet.
quote:
Obviously, it's difficult to use statistics to predict how actual humans might perform on a given 2-4 day window. Some Zach Johnson type person might have a great weekend... or a Rory might melt down.
For sure. Also, some players just show up for the Masters, which is why the Vegas odds favor so heavily.
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