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Why Yang's UBI Won't Work (aka "Basic Math")
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:32 pm
First off, Yang's plan...
Every US adult (18 and older) would receive $1k/month regardless of employment status. Those on welfare (non-Medicaid) could get either their welfare benefits or the $1k but not both.
The Factors in the Math...
There are ~327M people in the US. According to the 2010 census approximately 23% are under 18, meaning 77% would be eligible to receive the UBI.
FY2018 saw spending of ~$450B on non-Medicaid welfare.
327M - 23% = 251,790,000 adults. Multiply that by $1,000 and you get $251,790,000,000 per month. So each month we would be spending on this program over half of what it took to fund the program it's designed to replace for a full year!
$251,790,000,000 x 12 months = $3,021,480,000,000
$3T vs $450B...
But wait! What about the VAT?
A Value-Added Tax is far closer to a sales tax than an income tax. As such it would likely require a Constitutional Amendment before it could be implemented. Such a tax would be a major penalty to businesses as it's assessed at each stage of the production chain. Such increases would be passed on to the consumer. What this means is that the necessary spike in prices a VAT would cause would defeat the revenue it was intended to provide.
Now a dose of reality...
Section 8, TANF, CHIP, SNAP, etc aren't going anywhere. Medicaid/care is especially not going anywhere. Even the revisions that created TANF didn't pass without a fight (even now that we have two decades of data showing a decline in use since then).
What we would end up with would be a UBI as in addition to the welfare programs (the rhetoric would be "UBI is a 'right'"). That would either break the country within a decade or force the VAT amendment into passage.
If the VAT were to pass it would become yet another tool Congress would use to buy their re-elections because it would not be long before it was claimed that $1k/month is not a "living wage" (and thus it would quickly grow beyond 10%).
As I've stated before in other threads Yang's ideas aren't just moronic, they are dangerously bad.
Every US adult (18 and older) would receive $1k/month regardless of employment status. Those on welfare (non-Medicaid) could get either their welfare benefits or the $1k but not both.
The Factors in the Math...
There are ~327M people in the US. According to the 2010 census approximately 23% are under 18, meaning 77% would be eligible to receive the UBI.
FY2018 saw spending of ~$450B on non-Medicaid welfare.
327M - 23% = 251,790,000 adults. Multiply that by $1,000 and you get $251,790,000,000 per month. So each month we would be spending on this program over half of what it took to fund the program it's designed to replace for a full year!
$251,790,000,000 x 12 months = $3,021,480,000,000
$3T vs $450B...
But wait! What about the VAT?
A Value-Added Tax is far closer to a sales tax than an income tax. As such it would likely require a Constitutional Amendment before it could be implemented. Such a tax would be a major penalty to businesses as it's assessed at each stage of the production chain. Such increases would be passed on to the consumer. What this means is that the necessary spike in prices a VAT would cause would defeat the revenue it was intended to provide.
Now a dose of reality...
Section 8, TANF, CHIP, SNAP, etc aren't going anywhere. Medicaid/care is especially not going anywhere. Even the revisions that created TANF didn't pass without a fight (even now that we have two decades of data showing a decline in use since then).
What we would end up with would be a UBI as in addition to the welfare programs (the rhetoric would be "UBI is a 'right'"). That would either break the country within a decade or force the VAT amendment into passage.
If the VAT were to pass it would become yet another tool Congress would use to buy their re-elections because it would not be long before it was claimed that $1k/month is not a "living wage" (and thus it would quickly grow beyond 10%).
As I've stated before in other threads Yang's ideas aren't just moronic, they are dangerously bad.
7
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:33 pm to Bard
Y’all really wasting time even discussing this fricktard?
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:37 pm to Uncle Don
quote:
Y’all really wasting time even discussing this fricktard?
Every now and then one of the math-deficient posters comes here to push a Yang stance. I just wanted to put this out there as a quick reference for why the UBI idea won't work.
It's one thing to say why it will/won't work, it's another to actually have the data to prove it. As yet all of the "proof" Yang and his supporters provide is strictly conjecture done within the most optimistic (and reality-defying) framework.
And I was bored.
This post was edited on 4/7/19 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:50 pm to Bard
quote:Brilliant since people who rely on welfare benefits are known for making smart life choices and managing finances well.
Those on welfare (non-Medicaid) could get either their welfare benefits or the $1k but not both.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:50 pm to Uncle Don
pretty much everyone knew this without the numbers broken down but it was still worth the read to see the actual numbers
and it will be fun to watch dimms try to deny basic math
and it will be fun to watch dimms try to deny basic math
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:55 pm to Bard
quote:
If the VAT were to pass it would become yet another tool Congress would use to buy their re-elections because it would not be long before it was claimed that $1k/month is not a "living wage" (and thus it would quickly grow beyond 10%).
That's actually pretty profound. Self-evidently true.
But at the same time the train is coming down the tunnel.
It makes little difference what argument you make, or choose to believe. Automation is coming.
Nothing - other than government interference to PURPOSEFULLY not allow it, is going to stop it.
And that is kind of a stupid thing to do actually. Because countries like Japan and Korea, and strangely enough, China are going to full-bore embrace it.
So you don't really have the choice of not playing the game. Assuming what some would call neo-Ludditism was even sellable in the US.
So where does that leave us? No idea here. But Philip K. Dick had a famous remark, "Reality is that, which when you don't believe in it anymore, doesn't go away."
Reality is coming. And my personal take is that a good portion of the posters on this board are going to be made redundant, at whatever it is they do. This next wave is that powerful.
On the bright side, hey a machine could do most of what our current elites do now. Better actually. They won't spend money on hookers, blow, or divorces.
What that means, I dunno. But I guess we find out.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 12:59 pm to Bard
quote:
Those on welfare (non-Medicaid) could get either their welfare benefits or the $1k but not both.
I ageee that this would be a disaster but at least he’s the only democrat willing to state the above.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 1:15 pm to memphis tiger
quote:
I ageee that this would be a disaster but at least he’s the only democrat willing to state the above.
I agree with the OP. He couldn't pull it off. Assuming he could get UBI implemented, I don't think there is any way he could pull pre-existing entitlement programs.
So what we would have is UBI and welfare.
Still at this moment, we have swathes of America that are totally unemployable. Go to the South Side of Chicago, anywhere with generational welfare dependency. Those people are just not employable without make work programs. Geez. Just pull up a video, heck just use a string like "BLANK residents confront police after traffic stop."
You've seen this sort of thing before. Thing anyone would hire anyone from the crowd to do anything? Be a clerk at a convenience store? Work in a call center?
Posted on 4/7/19 at 1:27 pm to Bard
Yang is still asking the right questions. I agree that UBI would be a failure, but that’s separate from at least identifying the right problems. Yang on Tucker Carlson showed me that at least.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 1:35 pm to Bard
I wonder what happens to everyone's rent when everyone's income goes up $1000/month.
Hmmmmmm.
Hmmmmmm.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 1:43 pm to Gusoline
The plan appeals to 20-28 y.o. people who don't want a job (cuz working sucks), don't want to get married, don't want to buy a house or a car, etc. They just need some basic income so they can fulfill their dreams:
Learning to play guitar
Hitchhiking through Belgium
Do some sculpting to sell at Art Fest
There are a LOT of these people out there.
Learning to play guitar
Hitchhiking through Belgium
Do some sculpting to sell at Art Fest
There are a LOT of these people out there.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 1:46 pm to Zach
quote:
The plan appeals to 20-28 y.o. people who don't want a job (cuz working sucks)
Yang isn’t against working. Listening to Shapiro now and he agrees that working is essential for happiness and purpose. He just sees an unfortunate reality where automation is coming for people’s livelihoods.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 3:04 pm to Gusoline
quote:
I wonder what happens to everyone's rent when everyone's income goes up $1000/month.
That's the funny part about the VAT. If he's tying the UBI to inflation (and he'll need to or else it becomes another minimum wage battle every few years) then trying to pay for it with a VAT is a self-perpetuating cost increase.
Let's say UBI comes into existence, that's $1k per month of buying power. You install the 10% VAT, you've just increased prices across the board by 10% and so that $1k will pretty quickly need to be $1,100 just to keep up. Bumping it up to $1,100 would mean you need to increase the VAT to pay for it which would then increase prices more, rinse and repeat until we become Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
At the most polite, it's an incredibly short-sighted idea.
Posted on 4/7/19 at 3:08 pm to Bard
If $1000 UBI is a good idea, what's wrong with 1005, or 1100, or 1125? What is magical about the number 1000?
Posted on 4/7/19 at 3:12 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
If $1000 UBI is a good idea, what's wrong with 1005, or 1100, or 1125? What is magical about the number 1000?
And his misunderstanding of human nature has led him to say he believes many would take the cash rather than the benefits (even though they get more from benefits) AND that he believes they won't misspend it (see: cash given out to Katrina evacuees).
Posted on 4/7/19 at 3:18 pm to Bard
Oh he understands human nature plenty, thus his buying of votes.
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