quote:
Even back in 2015 with three republicans running against each other, JBE was still forced into a runoff after getting 41% of the vote.

The Louisiana Democrat will always get 40-45%, it’s just an issue of getting enough republican crossovers and moderate Democrats who usually vote republican.

You're forgetting about the incumbent factor. Depending on the stats you look at the rate for incumbent Governors to win ranges from 63%-87%. This is on top of my reasoning about there being no major scandals being widely reported about him, the rhetorical platform of improved state finances and the low name-recognition of his challengers below I-10.

It's possible the turnout for Trump helps drive a runoff, but if so I still see JBE as winning as things stand right now.

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Posted by vodkacop

Louisiana

Member since Nov 2008

7882 posts

Posted on 4/1/19 at 11:11 am to MrLSU

Uh no 18th district is very democrat. Plus Jeremy LaCombe has done alot for that area which includes New Roads, Fordoche and Livonia. He also is from that area so he has a ton of kinfolk there. He also does a real big fundraiser for cancer in August in that area.

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Posted by 995webmaster

New Orleans

Member since Dec 2007

3780 posts

Posted on 4/1/19 at 11:16 am to MrLSU

quote:
there is no reason we should be losing much less not have a qualified GOP Governor candidate.

Bobby Jindal is the gift that keeps on giving--to Louisiana Dems.

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Posted by Sentrius

Fort Rozz

Member since Jun 2011

64757 posts

Posted on 4/1/19 at 11:35 am to Bard

quote:
You're forgetting about the incumbent factor.

And you’re forgetting statistical evidence saying that there has not been a single poll that I know of that shows JBE has the necessary 50.1% to win outright in the first round even with all the advantages you say he has and Rispone and Abraham being “unknown”.

And you’re acting like he’s a lock to win outright?

What a joke.