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Started By
Message
re: Breaking: China offers a way to eliminate US trade imbalance. HAIL TRUMP!
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:27 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:27 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
China's economy has slowed.
in terms of real growth it's still liable to double-up ours for 2018
quote:
As an economy slows, consumption slows. As consumption slows, imports slow.
their economy is still growing significantly faster than ours. if it's as simple as you say, their imports should still be doing the same. yet not only has our deficit with them continued growing, in fact it has grown faster than it did the prior year
(at least thru october, which was the last update posted prior to census shutdown)
One thing- you don't seem to address whether you attribute China's slowdown to the trade war. Do you break ranks with the board on that issue?
1
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:31 pm to member12
Nope.
We knew the fed's intention in December virtually all year. There were some worries about 2019 fed actions but nothing to offset the conference calls of company after company warning about supply chain interruptions and cost increases reflated to these tariffs and the purposed massive tariffs for March.
Just forget it member12. The trade war shaved almost $5 trillion dollars off the investments of Americans in the 4th quarter of 2018. That is why Trump is pushing very hard for a deal right now and that is why I have been saying he would get something he will call a win. Just like the WSJ said yesterday he is pushing his guys to close the deal.
I am surprised and happy to see the Chinese agree to take some goods from us. I do think the agricultural and LNG were no brainers for them and were sales definitely in danger if the tariffs continued.
Mark my word, however, if Trump does not get something for the American companies wanting to expand their plants IN CHINA this deal will fall apart. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that Vice Premier Liu He wants that IP protection and lower requirements on investments in China and that something would happen.
Hopefully he can deliver on that in a way Trump can declare victory. I hope he is not have to bide time with this 6 year deal because he has not gotten the Chinese politicians to agree with IP protections as extensive as needed.
Remember this though---don't be confused by it--all this IP theft--for the most part---has been happening in China a US owned plants that have Chinese partners. All this IP protection talk is not about jobs here---it is about investments in China by the Boeings and Apples and Caterpillars of the world.
We knew the fed's intention in December virtually all year. There were some worries about 2019 fed actions but nothing to offset the conference calls of company after company warning about supply chain interruptions and cost increases reflated to these tariffs and the purposed massive tariffs for March.
Just forget it member12. The trade war shaved almost $5 trillion dollars off the investments of Americans in the 4th quarter of 2018. That is why Trump is pushing very hard for a deal right now and that is why I have been saying he would get something he will call a win. Just like the WSJ said yesterday he is pushing his guys to close the deal.
I am surprised and happy to see the Chinese agree to take some goods from us. I do think the agricultural and LNG were no brainers for them and were sales definitely in danger if the tariffs continued.
Mark my word, however, if Trump does not get something for the American companies wanting to expand their plants IN CHINA this deal will fall apart. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that Vice Premier Liu He wants that IP protection and lower requirements on investments in China and that something would happen.
Hopefully he can deliver on that in a way Trump can declare victory. I hope he is not have to bide time with this 6 year deal because he has not gotten the Chinese politicians to agree with IP protections as extensive as needed.
Remember this though---don't be confused by it--all this IP theft--for the most part---has been happening in China a US owned plants that have Chinese partners. All this IP protection talk is not about jobs here---it is about investments in China by the Boeings and Apples and Caterpillars of the world.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:35 pm to I B Freeman
When China cancels US shipments and starts buying vessels from Bangladesh, you think those beans are grown in Bangladesh?? China steps in and says they will buy "significant" commodities and buys 15 cargoes of beans from the US right as SA supplies get tight and expensive. Then all of the sudden, SA beans don't fetch the premium they previously did, those beans cheapen up, and now SA harvest is kicking off. So were those bean purchases from the US a sign of goodwill, or China trying to bridge the gap to SA harvest while cheapening up new crop beans? Which is why I'm skeptical when it comes to China on delivering on what they say they are prepared to do
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:40 pm to I B Freeman
quote:Because that is the way a healthy economy works. Each job created fractionally supports creation of others. ROI compounds.
Why should we think these numbers will increase every year?
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:41 pm to ClampClampington
You say all this crap with nothing to back it up. Do you know how to link?
Just look at the friggin numbers.
Do you think the Brazilian and Argentina inventory just went away? Do you think the USDA is lying about the big decrease in exports?
Just look at the friggin numbers.
Do you think the Brazilian and Argentina inventory just went away? Do you think the USDA is lying about the big decrease in exports?
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:43 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:According to Chinese numbers. Right.
in terms of real growth it's still liable to double-up ours for 2018
Reliance on those numbers screwed US companies in the 4thQ.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:44 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Because that is the way a healthy economy works. Each job created fractionally supports creation of others. ROI compounds.
Let me get this straight. You too think that we will have 200000 jobs in year one from this deal then add another 200000 in year two with no increase in purchases over the year one purchases from this deal and then add another 200000 in year three with no increase?? so on and so on so that the end of the 6 year period there will have been 1.2 million jobs added even though the annual exports to China never increase after year 1?
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:46 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
You say all this crap
quote:
I B Freeman
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:48 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
According to Chinese numbers. Right.
interesting. were you always one of those?
quote:
Reliance on those numbers screwed US companies in the 4thQ.
reliance on what numbers?
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:52 pm to NC_Tigah
Waiting on you tell me why it takes 6 times as many people in year 6 to deliver the same goods you delivered in year 1.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:54 pm to NC_Tigah
Are you now implying that you think we shipped soybeans to "insert country" for resale to China in big way too???
The window is open go ahead and throw that last smidgeon of creditability you have out.
The window is open go ahead and throw that last smidgeon of creditability you have out.
This post was edited on 1/18/19 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:55 pm to NC_Tigah
Uhhh--are you saying the Chinese economy is actually shrinking or are you saying it's growth is slowing. Do you know how to link??
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:57 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
You too think that we will 200000 jobs in year one from this deal
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
$160B/yr evenly wrought over a number of years would equate to >2M jobs @ ~$80K per.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 2:58 pm to I B Freeman
quote:Do you know how to read?
Do you know how to link??
If not, it isn't worth my time to link.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:04 pm to I B Freeman
quote:No. I am now saying flatout that your contentions regarding the need and effect of targeted tariffs within a trade war, and of the effects of IP theft are crap. Pure crap.
Are you know implying that
For you to cite others as "saying all this crap" is laughable, given the boneheaded crap you've consistently posted.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:05 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
$160B/yr evenly wrought over a number of years would equate to >2M jobs @ ~$80K per.
do yourself a favor and don't set your expectations there
2+ million is right up there with the total increase in employment over the entire boom year of 2018
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:05 pm to NC_Tigah
Why don't you just step back and think before posting. Each post is worse.
$160 billion is what are exporting every year. It is not jobs!!!!! or salaries!!!
It may be LNG and take 1000 people to produce or something.
Are you on something today? I don't remember you being this far out of touch.
$160 billion is what are exporting every year. It is not jobs!!!!! or salaries!!!
It may be LNG and take 1000 people to produce or something.
Are you on something today? I don't remember you being this far out of touch.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:07 pm to NC_Tigah
When did you say that?????
You got to back up this stupid crap you are posting.
You got to back up this stupid crap you are posting.
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:08 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:Yes?
interesting. were you always one of those?
Posted on 1/18/19 at 3:09 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
do yourself a favor and don't set your expectations there
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
quote:
We don't really know enough about the spend to say, do we?
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