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re: US says it has conducted 'extraordinary' flight over Ukraine in warning to Russia
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:29 pm to boosiebadazz
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:29 pm to boosiebadazz
Ukraine is like Russia in the 90s, except the state institutions are much weaker, and the rule of law is even more limited.
All of the major parties in Ukraine are backed by kleptocratic oligarchs, who have their own parochial interests, which generally include self enrichment.
Poroshenko is unusual because he is both a politician and an oligarch.
He has been no less aggressive in looting the state for his own financial benefit though. That includes steering contracts to his firms, and signing terms which are tilted in his favor.
This also happened in Russia in the 90s, but Putin was able to eventually crush the oligarchs, you can make money, but stay out of politics, and restore state control.
That’s not to say things are great in Russia, they’re just much better than they were, and vastly better than the situation in Ukraine.
The big issue for us is we have Western Ukrainians using us, to pursue their grudge against their Eastern cousins. They’re dragging us into their parochial fight. And the westerners are as reckless as they are corrupt.
The divide is cultural, and dates to the Mongol invasion and the rise of the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth. That split the people of the region we call Ukraine, between west and east. Easterners speak Russian in their homes, for example.
The best outcome for us is neutral Ukraine that provides a buffer between NATO and Russia. The Ukrainians may hate living with each other, but it’s better than war.
I believe this is Moscow’s preferred outcome.
If the westerners continue to pursue an aggressive course though, they will break the country into two.
In that event Moscow would probably encourage the separatists to occupy as much territory as possible, but they would refrain from officially recognizing this new state, or annexing it.
If I remember correctly, Poroshenko has a 10% approval rating, and the latest crisis was probably an attempt to stay in power. It’s why he pushed for an extended period of martial law. It would allow him to postpone the upcoming elections.
It’s also why his rivals made sure martial law wouldn’t last more than a month, and elections could proceed as scheduled.
If Poroshenko loses, his rivals will use their new power to destroy him. So he will do everything he can to hang on.
All of the major parties in Ukraine are backed by kleptocratic oligarchs, who have their own parochial interests, which generally include self enrichment.
Poroshenko is unusual because he is both a politician and an oligarch.
He has been no less aggressive in looting the state for his own financial benefit though. That includes steering contracts to his firms, and signing terms which are tilted in his favor.
This also happened in Russia in the 90s, but Putin was able to eventually crush the oligarchs, you can make money, but stay out of politics, and restore state control.
That’s not to say things are great in Russia, they’re just much better than they were, and vastly better than the situation in Ukraine.
The big issue for us is we have Western Ukrainians using us, to pursue their grudge against their Eastern cousins. They’re dragging us into their parochial fight. And the westerners are as reckless as they are corrupt.
The divide is cultural, and dates to the Mongol invasion and the rise of the Polish Lithuanian commonwealth. That split the people of the region we call Ukraine, between west and east. Easterners speak Russian in their homes, for example.
The best outcome for us is neutral Ukraine that provides a buffer between NATO and Russia. The Ukrainians may hate living with each other, but it’s better than war.
I believe this is Moscow’s preferred outcome.
If the westerners continue to pursue an aggressive course though, they will break the country into two.
In that event Moscow would probably encourage the separatists to occupy as much territory as possible, but they would refrain from officially recognizing this new state, or annexing it.
If I remember correctly, Poroshenko has a 10% approval rating, and the latest crisis was probably an attempt to stay in power. It’s why he pushed for an extended period of martial law. It would allow him to postpone the upcoming elections.
It’s also why his rivals made sure martial law wouldn’t last more than a month, and elections could proceed as scheduled.
If Poroshenko loses, his rivals will use their new power to destroy him. So he will do everything he can to hang on.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:39 pm to Mud_Till_May
quote:
Germany will back russia because of oil and gas deals. It's going to get hot this summer.
You are an idiot. That is all.
Posted on 12/7/18 at 6:27 am to boosiebadazz
LW/Ukraine is comparable to Mulder/Israel. There is some deep-seared issue there.
Ukraine borders on five NATO allies. Instability there is problematic. Russian aggression there is problematic.
Ukraine borders on five NATO allies. Instability there is problematic. Russian aggression there is problematic.
Posted on 12/7/18 at 6:34 am to AggieHank86
quote:
Ukraine borders on five NATO allies. Instability there is problematic. Russian aggression there is problematic.
The Russians have been reactive in Ukraine.
quote:
Instability there is problematic
The instability is a direct result of our policies. We broke Ukraine apart.
quote:
LW/Ukraine is comparable to Mulder/Israel.
I’m happy to debate specifics. You don’t not appear to have an actual material knowledge of the situation though.
This post was edited on 12/7/18 at 6:39 am
Posted on 12/7/18 at 7:07 am to Lima Whiskey
Ukraine has ALWAYS been a “split” country, going back centuries. We took a side. So did the Russians. The difference is that we backed the majority.
Should Ukraine be partitioned? Probably.
Should Ukraine be partitioned? Probably.
Posted on 12/7/18 at 7:37 am to Mud_Till_May
quote:
Germany will back russia because of oil and gas deals. It's going to get hot this summer.
I wouldn't mind if we get the chance to kick Kraut arse again.
Posted on 12/7/18 at 7:39 am to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
Say Trump pisses of Putin, then the Russians float some BS to lend credibility to the collusion narrative. That's the one thing that could really erode Trump's presidency and the Dems essentially handed the play to Putin.
Many Dems are on their knees praying to Satan that they can provoke Putin into launching some kind of Info operation producing fake evidence of Trump collusion -- that's how badly the people who really run things want to get rid of this Nazi Nationalist Trump.
Trump admits to be a Nationalist! The word "Nazi" literally has the word Nationalist in its title !! See the Orcasian logic here?
This post was edited on 12/7/18 at 7:41 am
Posted on 12/7/18 at 6:06 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
we backed the majority.
How are you making that determination? Based on the territory in rebel hands?
quote:
We took a side.
And that is undesirable, we sparked a civil war in Europe.
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