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NFL - Over 15-yard completion percentage vs Under 15-yard completion percentage
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:47 pm
The NFL charts every pass by "over 15 yards" or "under 15 yards", then left side of the field, right side or center. They logged 17,143 passes in 2017.
The Under 15 yard completion rate is 69% The Over 15 yard completion rate is 39%.
Burrow has thrown a ton of Over-15 yarder's. Far more then any college QB I can recall. And he has been throwing them safely away from the DB's for the most part (even tougher to complete)
I'm guessing Burrow's completion rate would be much higher if he threw a ton of short stuff like most QB's do.
But then, it ain't broke, so...
Link to chart:
LINK
The Under 15 yard completion rate is 69% The Over 15 yard completion rate is 39%.
Burrow has thrown a ton of Over-15 yarder's. Far more then any college QB I can recall. And he has been throwing them safely away from the DB's for the most part (even tougher to complete)
I'm guessing Burrow's completion rate would be much higher if he threw a ton of short stuff like most QB's do.
But then, it ain't broke, so...
Link to chart:
LINK
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 3:50 pm
9
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:49 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
Obviously he has thrown more 15+ yard throws than probably anyone in the NCAA, but he has flat out missed on some 15-20 yard throws that he CAN hit. He will get better. The future is bright with him.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:50 pm to TheAstroTiger
quote:
missed on some 15-20 yard throws that he CAN hit.
True. But Burrow is throwing out "to the corners of the strike zone" which makes picks (and receptions) much tougher.
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:51 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
I'm guessing Burrow's completion rate would be much higher if he threw a ton of short stuff like most QB's do.
IIRC, Burrow's completion percentage on passes behind the line of scrimmage is also sub 50%.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:53 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
Idk why people keep worrying about the completion percentage. He has played 3 games with new wrs and they will all get better
Posted on 9/19/18 at 3:54 pm to slackster
quote:
IIRC, Burrow's completion percentage on passes behind the line of scrimmage is also sub 50%
Ridiculous LOL
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:02 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
Idk why people keep worrying about the completion percentage. He has played 3 games with new wrs and they will all get better
Hopefully, probably, but I'd like to actually see it before I eliminate it as a concern.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:05 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Ridiculous LOL
He is 2 for 5 on running back screens. Sound the alarms!
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:12 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
Spin-off: I do like what E is doing. We are running more horizontal spread out formations and at the same time stretching the field. We are forcing defenses to realistically defend over 1,000 square yards on just about every play. That is, the most defend the width of the field and a realistic threat of throws 20 yards downfield - both down the sidelines and across the middle.
Last year, with tighter formations and no passing game over the middle, the amount of grass in play was far less.
These shots we're taking downfield may not help Joe's completion percentage, but they are influencing future game plans.
My only complaint on the scheme is the lack of TE involvement. I fully expect the offense to become more efficient. But I love the spacing that Ensminger is creating.
Last year, with tighter formations and no passing game over the middle, the amount of grass in play was far less.
These shots we're taking downfield may not help Joe's completion percentage, but they are influencing future game plans.
My only complaint on the scheme is the lack of TE involvement. I fully expect the offense to become more efficient. But I love the spacing that Ensminger is creating.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:14 pm to TheAstroTiger
quote:
Obviously he has thrown more 15+ yard throws than probably anyone in the NCAA
Is it obvious?
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:20 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
I think the people who keep bringing up his completion percentage are not really watching the games(Jordan Rogers SEC network).
They are just looking at the numbers mostly.
The great quarterbacks are the ones that consistently get it done when the game is on the line(4th quarter).
In Joe Montana’s first year in the NFL he had a 56.5 CP.
He finished with a career 63.2 CP.
I think our Joe will be fine!
They are just looking at the numbers mostly.
The great quarterbacks are the ones that consistently get it done when the game is on the line(4th quarter).
In Joe Montana’s first year in the NFL he had a 56.5 CP.
He finished with a career 63.2 CP.
I think our Joe will be fine!
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:20 pm to slackster
quote:
IIRC, Burrow's completion percentage on passes behind the line of scrimmage is also sub 50%.
Doesn't that sample size consist of a handful of screens, a couple of which he threw into the ground because they were sniffed out, and Giles' drop?
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:27 pm to slackster
quote:
IIRC, Burrow's completion percentage on passes behind the line of scrimmage is also sub 50%.
This.
I love the kid, and I think he's a good one, but I've seen a lot of people making excuses for him such as deep balls where DBs can't get it, throw-aways and tipped balls, but I've seen him miss on more than a few screen passes.
I think he's only going to get better, and I hope he stays for next year. I also hope Brennan is learning about leadership, reading defenses and keeping his cool under pressure from Burrow. Burrow could be just the seed we need to regrow the QB position at LSU. Smart, cool, mature.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:44 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
I've seen a lot of people making excuses for him such as deep balls where DBs can't get it, throw-aways and tipped balls, but I've seen him miss on more than a few screen passes.
I think he's only going to get better
He's played his key position well enough to beat 2 top-10 teams in his first 3 games - and both were road games. And while I have no doubt that he'll continue to develop his skill-set, he's pretty damn good right now.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 4:58 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
he's pretty damn good right now.
Yep, but his strengths are poise in the pocket, reading defenses, changing the play, and knowing when to throw the ball away. He's obviously a coaches son. These are the key things we need Brennan to pick up on.
I can't tell you how tired I got of LSU QBs getting back up from under center and looking over at the sidelines with a WTF look on their faces.
Another thing I've noticed, and I don't know if this is Burrow, the position coach or Ensminger, but it looks like our RBs are better at picking up blitzers this season. That combined with the much improved pass blocking we've seen from the line all combine to help Burrow look even better.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:01 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
Burrow has thrown a ton of Over-15 yarder's. Far more then any college QB I can recall.
Stats to back this up? He's thrown a bunch of short stuff as well.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:11 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Burrow has thrown a ton of Over-15 yarder's. Far more then any college QB I can recall.
Stats to back this up? He's thrown a bunch of short stuff as well.
No. Just from memory. And I've googled pretty hard to find a passing chart on Burrow. If I get some time, I'll chart one after the Tech game.
If anyone has a passing chart, please link it
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:15 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
I love the kid, and I think he's a good one, but I've seen a lot of people making excuses for him such as deep balls where DBs can't get it, throw-aways and tipped balls, but I've seen him miss on more than a few screen passes.
I've been saying things like that, but I wouldn't call them "excuses." I'd call them observations. I simply do not believe his completion % thus far is truly indicative of his ability.
I know this sounds trite, but Burrow's incomplete passes do not look the same as Etling's, Harris's, Jennings's, or Jefferson's incomplete passes.
Like I told a friend...through three games and 70+ pass attempts, I have yet to think "WTF was that?!" after a pass thrown by Joe Burrow. Seems like I was muttering that once or twice per quarter for most of the past 10 years. The closest thing I can think of so far is the near-pick by Miami on the quick throw to Jefferson. But after seeing the replay, it was clear that it was a miscommunication/incorrect route rather than a bad throw.
I've re-watched his play from all three games and it is clear to me that he is an accurate passer. The deep balls have been missing their mark, but I still think they got the job done against Auburn by loosening up their secondary for the slant/intermediate passing game. Go back and watch any game. You'll only find a handful of passes per game that are truly poor throws.
My biggest knock on him so far is that he does seem to hold on to the ball too long, which I think has resulted in some sacks, disrupted passes, and DBs being able to get some PBUs. But I think that is the result of the learning curve of still being so new in the system. The screen game needs some work too.
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:16 pm to SportTiger1
Considering he's 77th in the country in yards per attempt (6.9), I'm going to assume he's not even in the top half of the list for number of throws over 15 yards.
Posted on 9/19/18 at 5:35 pm to Buckeye Jeaux
quote:
No. Just from memory. And I've googled pretty hard to find a passing chart on Burrow. If I get some time, I'll chart one after the Tech game.
If anyone has a passing chart, please link it
I just charted the last 2 drives of the Auburn game - (Yardage is line of scrimmage to touch by receiver):
21 yards - TD Dillon
29 yards - Flag PI
10 yards - Inc
7 yards - Comp
28 yards - Inc
6 yards - Comp
20 Yards - Inc
28 yards - Flag PI
5 of 8 were 20 yards or over
So, I guess if we are judging by completion percentage (50%) those last 2 drives were a dismal failure :)
This post was edited on 9/19/18 at 5:41 pm
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