re: 8-4 regular season is the floor... here's why

Also, the OP's methodology is off. You are equating all of the top 25 as equal. In 2014, we had two preseason top 10 teams on our schedule, plus three other top 25 teams who were all ranked lower than us.

This year, we play four preseason top 10 teams and five top 25 teams overall, all of which are ranked higher than us.

I think preseason polls are crap. But if you look at 2014 and 2018 on that basis only, we have a much harder schedule this year. Thus, the over/under being at 7.5 is pretty fair if you use 2014's 8-4 performance against a weaker schedule as your "norm."