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re: Great prognosticator- Nate Silver &538- 75% Dems take House
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:55 pm to Centinel
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:55 pm to Centinel
That's the point. He isn't going around creating data points. He is taking the data points available, applying an algorithm and then synthesizing the output into a data model. Hillary and Trump were polling within the margin of error. This was a possible outcome.
It's the same reason you can't accurately estimate cost on a project down to the dollar. With all of these projections you build an algorithm based on reasonable assumptions and scientific estimation techniques (typically relying on a combination of analogous situations and parametrics).
It's the same reason you can't accurately estimate cost on a project down to the dollar. With all of these projections you build an algorithm based on reasonable assumptions and scientific estimation techniques (typically relying on a combination of analogous situations and parametrics).
2
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:59 pm to Tigerdev
Right, he didnt say it was a 100% chance HRC would win, I think it was like 62-64% around election day so pretty much 1/3 chance Trump would win.
Posted on 8/17/18 at 8:39 am to Tigerdev
quote:Nope.
That's the point. He isn't going around creating data points. He is taking the data points available, applying an algorithm and then synthesizing the output into a data model. Hillary and Trump were polling within the margin of error. This was a possible outcome.
quote:Nah. No one in PMO would use such a stupid convoluted and inaccurate method of cost estimating a project.
It's the same reason you can't accurately estimate cost on a project down to the dollar.
quote:
With all of these projections you build an algorithm based on reasonable assumptions and scientific estimation techniques (typically relying on a combination of analogous situations and parametrics).
only if you want the same garbage out as you put in. Good modelers don’t let that happen. 
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