Posting this here, because I just posted in another thread, and this thread is better. Was in response to someone saying the ONLY benefit was getting an education.

That is where you are dead wrong. He was drafted late in the first round, with a slot of around 3 million. If he goes to school I believe it's super realistic to expect him to be drafted top 5, which is anywhere between 5-2 million more in slot value.

So, let's put in all in prespective, since you say getting an education is the ONLY benefit to coming to LSU.

1. Obviously the education

2. Moving up in the first round allows him to make a lot more money. Obviously, there is no guarantee he moves up in the first round, but chances are he does.

3. Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

4. Is a combination of 2 And 3. While his signing bonus would be nice, his journey through the minors will not result in a big pay check. So, as he works his way up, that signing bonus will slowly (or quickly if he isn't smart with it) disappear. So, going to LSU could potentially both earn him a much much larger bonus plus get him closer to playing in the MLB quicker (see Bregman).

Now....all that being said, he probably will sign with the Brewers. However, it isn't as far fetched and as crazy as some of you think.

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Posted by MOT

Member since Jul 2006

28069 posts

Posted on 6/11/18 at 12:52 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo

It’s pretty far fetched. Since the draft went to this format in 2012 only 4 of 189 players selected in the first round didn’t sign. All four of those were pitchers, and at least two of them had medical issues discovered after the draft which torpedoed their negotiations. Also of those four, only one was a high school player who bypassed signing and went to college.

It isn’t impossible but it’s pretty close. Under the current system, when a team anticipates the number or signability being an issue the player just drops to a less risky position. While both sides are playing hardball, there is very little chance the Brewers didn’t know what it would take to sign him when they drafted him.

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Posted by Alt26

Member since Mar 2010

28738 posts

Posted on 6/11/18 at 1:04 pm to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo

quote:
That is where you are dead wrong. He was drafted late in the first round, with a slot of around 3 million. If he goes to school I believe it's super realistic to expect him to be drafted top 5, which is anywhere between 5-2 million more in slot value.

So, let's put in all in prespective, since you say getting an education is the ONLY benefit to coming to LSU.

1. Obviously the education

2. Moving up in the first round allows him to make a lot more money. Obviously, there is no guarantee he moves up in the first round, but chances are he does.

3. Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

4. Is a combination of 2 And 3. While his signing bonus would be nice, his journey through the minors will not result in a big pay check. So, as he works his way up, that signing bonus will slowly (or quickly if he isn't smart with it) disappear. So, going to LSU could potentially both earn him a much much larger bonus plus get him closer to playing in the MLB quicker (see Bregman).

Now....all that being said, he probably will sign with the Brewers. However, it isn't as far fetched and as crazy as some of you think.

I think the education is a non-issue. The guy isn't coming to LSU (or any school) to get an education. He's coming to play baseball. Which is fine.

He certainly could move up in the draft. But that draft would be what 2, 3 years away? He was picked 21st now. There isn't a whole hell of a lot of room to move up even if the risk works out for him. Plus, what's the time value of money here? You could argue $3.5 million NOW is worth as much or more than what he "could" get in a future signing bonus 2-3 years later.

quote:
Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

If he can do that in minor league ball AND have $3.5 million to invest while gaining that experience, why do it in college for "free"?

It's not a similar situation to Bregman in that Bregman's injury kept him out of the first round. For Bregman, it was either first round or bust and he (likely) would have been one but for the injury. When he wasn't taken in the first round, he had significant room to improve his draft position. For Turang, that's not quite the case since he is already a first rounder

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Posted by JakeTheTiger

Biloxi, MS

Member since Jul 2005

3152 posts

Posted on 6/12/18 at 5:29 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo

quote:
2. Moving up in the first round allows him to make a lot more money. Obviously, there is no guarantee he moves up in the first round, but chances are he does.

Saying chances are he moves up in the draft is being overly optimistic. Kid was drafted in the first round. That limits the potential improvement to moving up within the round he was already drafted in. I'm hopeful this guy makes it to campus, but chances are that doesn't happen.

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