re: Prediction: Saban steps down after 2018

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I have never been one that thought Saban would ever leave Alabama. No matter who came calling, the NFL, UT, he was never leaving Tuscaloosa.

His entire existence since 2007 has been focused on erasing any memory of his struggles at the NFL level that he so desperately sought for years. The best way to do that was to remain at the juggernaut he built and that came with so many advantages for him to exploit.

He has broken the SEC and reshaped the CFB world. Only once in the past 10 seasons has he lost more than 1 regular season game, and that was seven years ago, winning an incomprehensible 94% of regular season games since 2008. In the past seven years, only once was Alabama not in the playoff or BCS championship. And that was when his historic bid for a three peat was thwarted on the last play of the season in one of the most amazing plays in CFB history, keeping Alabama at the forefront of the conversation even after they were eliminated.

But today, Alabama stands on the verge of being out of the championship conversation entirely. Losing a month of coverage as a championship contender would be a fresh insult to Saban, and far more detrimental to the recruiting prowess he has established than any playoff loss could ever be when the conversation quickly turns to the next season when Alabama is automatically reasserted as a top contender.

There is still the possibility that Alabama will receive yet another reprieve and be gifted a late invite to the playoffs. But the lack of control is likely an unsettling feeling for the coach that thrives on total control of every aspect of the process he has cultivated for over a decade.


With all of the turnover in the coaching ranks of the SEC, there is a new element of uncertainty in the conference as well. After so thoroughly humbling the conference and its familiar coaches for so long, having to evaluate and master an entirely new group of philosophies all at once is just another obstacle that threatens the image of invincibility he has projected for so long.

Saban has a loaded and experienced roster set to run through an offensively forgiving slate of games in 2018 while the new crop of coaches attempt to reshape the cultures at their respective universities. This presents the perfect opportunity to put together an unbeaten final campaign as his lasting legacy as the greatest coach in the modern era before new challengers emerge in 2019.


This decision wouldn't be about fear of any coach in particular. But the simple understanding of the odds that his current pace is simply unsustainable into another decade as the conference landscape changes so drastically and so quickly.


I know this post will be disregarded as wishful thinking by those that bother to finish reading it, but this is coming from someone that always believed Saban was planning to coach Alabama for another decade to pass Bryant in wins at Alabama and win over over a dozen SEC titles, with 10 national championships in reach as well, a feat that would leave him in a realm of the college version of Bill Belichick.

But the unprecedented shakeup and reboot of the SEC will be a game changer for the ultimate control freak and lead him to reevaluate the long term viability of his current situation.

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