re: 2017-18 NHL Season Long Thread

me_for_president_2032 or something like that. He has an explanation about his model on a couple blog posts. I'm not an expert bettor or capper or anything. Just getting into sports betting. After reading though, I'll say his model is really good for identifying favorites that do not have near as big of a money line as they should. The Capitols were one of those tonight. Sometimes you find Dogs that Vegas has at +150 but once the model is applied, the probability has the line more around +105 or +110. It's fun hitting those.

Of course, you have to believe that his initial probability scores converted to odds are somewhat accurate otherwise it falls apart. It is more of a system to find margins against the book. If you used it to identify a few choices for value, then loooked even closer with whatever other subjective stats you may like to examine, you would be doing pretty well for yourself.