re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

The Euro has been pretty consistent over the last few days with this potential system. One of the things that we look for in the longer range with the models, when they are consistently showing a system, is for that system to move up in time. That has started to happen with the Euro. The models seem to agree that a large area of lowering pressure will form in the WCAB over the next week. As that happens, the Euro tracks the wave around 47W into the WCAB.



As the wave moves westward it interacts with the large area of lower pressure and helps to focus low level vorticy (spin) in the WCAB:



Then a rather large system slowly starts to lift NW into the Gulf:



Still a lot of time to watch this but all the ingredients are there for a system in the Gulf in October.