re: Vegas says we go 10-2

1) It is very, very wrong to say "Vegas has us favored in every game, they think we'll go 12-0!" You can gauge implied win probabilities from moneylines. LSU being a 7 point favorite against Moo U doesn't count as a full implied win, the same as being a 13 point dog against Bammer doesn't count as a full implied loss.

2) A much better gauge is a team's season win total, which was 9/9.5 this year for LSU, 9.5/10 the last.

3) Saying "Vegas isn't a projection, they simply try to predict what the public will bet" is a MYTH. They may shade a line a bit one way or the other due to public sentiment, but they absolutely start with a power ranking/projection and adjust only if they have to. Taking even money on both sides at one number is easy to talk about, but very hard to do in practice.