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re: Tesla Semi could be ‘the biggest catalyst in trucking in decades’
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:56 am to shel311
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:56 am to shel311
quote:
I think the sooner you realize this is definitely going to happen, the better off you'll be.
I have no doubt it will happen. I just don't see it happening in any of our lifetimes. It's not near as simple as any of you kids think. You're talking about a fundamental shift in a transportation system that spans an entire continent. Even if Tesla started full production tomorrow you'd still have years (probably decades) of road reconstruction, hundreds of power plants to build (go look at how long building even one takes), and then building up the infrastructure to charge the things every few hundred miles.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:59 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
It's not near as simple as any of you kids think.
quote:I understand it's not trucking, but if I told you 10 years ago Tesla would be where they are now, or SpaceX for that matter, I bet you would have never in your wildest dreams thought they'd be where they are now in 2017.
I have no doubt it will happen. I just don't see it happening in any of our lifetimes.
So there's that.
The fully autonomous trucking thing may be many many years in advance, but you're being pretty naive if you don't think EV trucking will be a thing in your lifetime or in the 20-30 years.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 11:00 am
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:14 am to Darth_Vader
quote:Ten years ago, did you think that every single person you see would have a touchscreen computer in their pocket by now?
I have no doubt it will happen. I just don't see it happening in any of our lifetimes.
And newsflash: THERE ARE ALREADY FULLY-AUTONOMOUS ELECTRIC VEHICLES ON THE ROAD TODAY. We are still within your lifetime, right?
quote:The hardest parts will be political/legal/regulatory.
It's not near as simple as any of you kids think.
quote:They use the same roads..
You're talking about a fundamental shift in a transportation system that spans an entire continent.
quote:The roads don't need to be reconstructed to accommodate electric trucks, they need to be reconstructed because they're falling apart.
Even if Tesla started full production tomorrow you'd still have years (probably decades) of road reconstruction,
quote:Our power capacity has been increasing forever, and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future. I think you're really overestimating the extra "surge" that will be required to power more electric vehicles. It will be a lot, but our capacity will scale with the demand because it has to. There will be money to be made there, so it will be done.
hundreds of power plants to build
quote:Luckily, we already have a fairly robust infrastructure for transporting electricity.
and then building up the infrastructure to charge the things every few hundred miles.
Yeah, it's going to take a long, long time to replace EVERY truck, if that ever happens. But the reality is that within MOST of our lifetimes, autonomous electric trucks will become more economically viable than human-driven diesel trucks.
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