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Started By
Message
What are the odds of seeing a face card on the flop in Tx Holdem?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:46 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:46 am
Since we're mathing tonight...
Go....
To eliminate bullshite, lets assume you haven't seen your own cards yet, or anyone elses. Basically I'm asking if we were to select any random three cards from a regulation deck, what are the chances a face card will appear?
Go....
To eliminate bullshite, lets assume you haven't seen your own cards yet, or anyone elses. Basically I'm asking if we were to select any random three cards from a regulation deck, what are the chances a face card will appear?
9
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:48 am to deuceiswild
12 out of 52
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:50 am to Nado Jenkins83
Nah, that'd be way too easy lol
Let me specify further we are looking for the odds that AT LEAST one face card appears.
Let me specify further we are looking for the odds that AT LEAST one face card appears.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:52 am to deuceiswild
17.3% if you're going by the math.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:57 am to GeorgeTheGreek
Nah, much higher.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:58 am to deuceiswild
Show your work.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:00 am to GeorgeTheGreek
I'll either show it by 430am or I'll wait till tomorrow night. Its a neat exercise and maybe someone wants a crack at it. Fair enough? 
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:06 am to deuceiswild
40/52*39/51*38/50=.45
.45-1=.55
.45-1=.55
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:11 am to deuceiswild
You'll never make it. Get a real job before it's too late
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:13 am to deuceiswild
Word to your mother
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:17 am to grape nutz
This is correct within a few tenths of a %. Nice!
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:18 am to deuceiswild
I rounded up. Thanks.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:21 am to grape nutz
Or down... I have it at 55.3% favorable.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 7:57 am to deuceiswild
quote:
Or down... I have it at 55.3% favorable.
If he rounded the 44.7% up to 45%, then when he subtracted it would look like he rounded down.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 8:19 am to deuceiswild
You should change the name of the thread because this
and this
are completely different questions. The flop in Texas holdem is never drawn from a full regulation deck and is improbable, with a large number of players, to contain the entire complement of face cards, though it is possible.
If we assume we keep about the same ratio of Face to Regular cards, on the other hand, we get 10 (rounded up from 9.7 cards) face cards to 42 overall.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 56.8%.
If you would postulate 5 player, each without a face card, then you begin with 12 face cards in a total of 42 overall cards.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 64.6%.
And my post clearly proves this is impossible on the OT.
quote:
What are the odds of seeing a face card on the flop in Tx Holdem?
and this
quote:
Basically I'm asking if we were to select any random three cards from a regulation deck, what are the chances a face card will appear?
are completely different questions. The flop in Texas holdem is never drawn from a full regulation deck and is improbable, with a large number of players, to contain the entire complement of face cards, though it is possible.
If we assume we keep about the same ratio of Face to Regular cards, on the other hand, we get 10 (rounded up from 9.7 cards) face cards to 42 overall.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 56.8%.
If you would postulate 5 player, each without a face card, then you begin with 12 face cards in a total of 42 overall cards.
In that scenario, using the method Grape Nutz used, your odds go up to 64.6%.
quote:
To eliminate bullshite,
And my post clearly proves this is impossible on the OT.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 8:25 am to deuceiswild
quote:
To eliminate bullshite, lets assume you haven't seen your own cards yet, or anyone elses. B
You eliminated important information, since that info affects the odds of a face card flop. How many people are playing? What happens if all of them receive a face card? If you're playing Texas hold'em, these would be the probabilities I'd start with then go from there.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:52 pm to mdomingue
quote:
The flop in Texas holdem is never drawn from a full regulation deck and is improbable, with a large number of players, to contain the entire complement of face cards, though it is possible.
This is irrelevent. It changes nothing. The two ways I worded the same question make perfect sense and they're identical questions.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:55 pm to Jyrdis
quote:
ou eliminated important information, since that info affects the odds of a face card flop. How many people are playing? What happens if all of them receive a face card? If you're playing Texas hold'em, these would be the probabilities I'd start with then go from there.
I eliminated nothing and the number of players make no difference. All the cards are unknown.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:06 pm to deuceiswild
quote:quote:
The flop in Texas holdem is never drawn from a full regulation deck and is improbable, with a large number of players, to contain the entire complement of face cards, though it is possible.
This is irrelevent. It changes nothing. The two ways I worded the same question make perfect sense and they're identical questions.
I agree with the statement regarding the math for the scenario you describe, I am just saying what you describe is not what the title describes. By definition, the flop in Texas holdem comes after the hole cards are dealt. That is all I was trying to say. Good math exercise regarless.
ETA: Upon rereading your original post, you are correct that the odds of drawing at least one face card in any three cards flipped is the same regardless of when those three cards are flipped within the deal. Well done.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:16 pm to deuceiswild
The odds of one card NOT being a face card is 40/52.
The odds of none of three cards NOT being a face card is (40/52) x (40/52) x (40/52) = .4551
1 - .4551 = .5449
.5449 x 100 = 54.49% chance of a face card coming on the flop
To make things more complicated, you have two hole cards. If neither of those cards are face cards, you odds increase. Vice versa if you have one or two face cards in the hole.
The odds of none of three cards NOT being a face card is (40/52) x (40/52) x (40/52) = .4551
1 - .4551 = .5449
.5449 x 100 = 54.49% chance of a face card coming on the flop
To make things more complicated, you have two hole cards. If neither of those cards are face cards, you odds increase. Vice versa if you have one or two face cards in the hole.
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