re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)

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At first you have a 1/3 chance. After host shows you the goat, wouldn't you now have a 1/2 chance? Door 3 no longer matters. You get a new pick between two doors. If the host knows, are we to assume he wants us to get the car?

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The 2 easiest ways to try to explain it for me, assuming you originally choose door 1:

1. If I gave you the option to keep door 1 or without opening anything to switch and see what's behind BOTH doors 2 and 3, you know have a 2/3 chance of opening the door with the car, correct? It's the same thing, he's just opening 1 door for you beforehand.

2. Play through all 3 scenarios with the car behind door 1, 2, and 3. If you choose to switch, the ONLY way you lose is if the car was behind door #1, correct? And since you know you had a 1 in 3 chance of picking correctly with door #1, then you know you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch.