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re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)

Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:20 am to
Posted by Nado Jenkins83
Land of the Free
Member since Nov 2012
59898 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:20 am to
That is only if you switch.

I.see you edited. I understand it y'all can stop typing out novels. I understood it on page one. But I just don't buy it.

I would stick to my gut because I hate second guessing. Thats the psychological demon in it
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 9:22 am
Posted by SlapahoeTribe
Tiger Nation
Member since Jul 2012
12126 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:21 am to
quote:

That is only if you switch.
Exactly. If you switch you get 2/3 odds.

If you don't switch then you only get a 1 in three chance of ever winning.
Posted by PrimeTime Money
Houston, Texas, USA
Member since Nov 2012
27342 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:32 am to
quote:

I understood it on page one. But I just don't buy it.
That doesn't even make sense. That's like saying I understand that 2 + 2 = 4 but I just don't buy it.

If you really understood it, you'd buy it. The only way you don't buy it is if you really don't understand it.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
111238 posts
Posted on 8/12/17 at 9:53 am to
quote:

I understand it y'all can stop typing out novels. I understood it on page one. But I just don't buy it.
It's math, there's nothing to buy.

When you swap, the only way you lose is if you chose the car initially. Since the odds of choosing the car initially was 1 in 3, then the odds of winning on the swap is 2 in 3.
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