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re: I'm actually more confident after last night

Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:54 am to
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20554 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:54 am to
quote:

quote:
I like our odds boys.


Game 1 winners wind up winning the series over 70% of the time.

Read that, like, a million times.

Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... it's either a sweep (figures in the game 1 winners), or it's a momentum shift.

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.

My uneducated guess is that the sweeps and the 2-3 winners are the two highest.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59490 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 11:59 am to
quote:

Read that, like, a million times. Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... i


I beat you by 1 post.
Posted by Sasquatch Smash
Member since Nov 2007
24153 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

Out of curiosity, what's the percentage for Game 2 winners? I would think THAT'S the key game... it's either a sweep (figures in the game 1 winners), or it's a momentum shift.

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.



I already posted those numbers based off of my memory from the broadcast.

Game 1 Winners have swept in two games 7 times. (7/14 = 50%)

Game 1 Winners that lose game 2 have also lost game 3 four times. (4/14 = 28.6%)

Game 1 Winners that lose game 2 have won game 3 three times. (3/14 = 21.4%)

So, for the 71% total for game 1 winners it's 7+3 = 10, and then 10/14 = 71%.



HOWEVER: Once the series goes to three games, game 1 winners have only won 43% of the time.

Tigers are in good shape should they win tonight...obviously in better shape than if they don't win.
Posted by Scoob
Near Exxon
Member since Jun 2009
20554 posts
Posted on 6/27/17 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

Would like to see a breakdown: how many teams who won game 1, won in game 3; how many swept; how many teams took 2 & 3.

My uneducated guess is that the sweeps and the 2-3 winners are the two highest.

Ok, I looked:

Since it went to a 3 game series, there have been 14 champs.

There have been 7 sweeps; the other 7 years it has gone 3 games.

Teams that won games 2 & 3 have won 4 times, teams that won games 1 and 3 have won 3 times.

So:
Teams that win Game 1 have won 10 out of 14 series,
but
Teams that win Game 2 have won 11 out of 14.

Teams that won Game 1, but lose Game 2, have won 3 out of 14.

Key game is tonight.

edit- you posted already
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 12:08 pm
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