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re: WCWS preview and predictions LSU softball
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:10 pm to Bhs83
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:10 pm to Bhs83
That was a long post, but I enjoy reading. 
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
quote:
OBP means everything? I disagree, respectfully. I know many elevate OBP above that of Batting Average, but I dont think it should be that way.
It's not an agree or disagree equation. Rigorous statistical analysis has been conducted over the last 15 years and it has determined that the single most important statistical predictor for scoring runs is OBP. The idea is to score runs over everything else when on the offensive side of the game.
The idea of offense is to conserve outs and score runs. It does not matter how you get on base. The first goal of any hitter is to get on base without creating an out in front of the hitter and then to create a run scored from this ability to get on base. All analysis shows that the higher the OBP of the player the more runs that player produces, period, end of story. It's not a debate, it is a statistical certainty.
Batting average is a great predictor of OBP since they correlate but it is not the ultimate predictor of scoring runs. That predictor is owned by OBP. BA is overrated because it treats all hits as singles and does not take BB's or HBP's into account. Slugging percentage is a far better predictor of a hitters worth than BA since it values each hit individually based on total bases. BA is the old school stat we are all used to seeing so it has remained a common evaluation tool.
With this said, whoever makes out the line up on any team on any level should first look at the highest OBP's on the roster and make sure they are in the line up every day. Why? Because you are guaranteed to score more runs using players that have higher OBP's. More runs means more wins on any level. There is no scenario that disproves the correlation in OBP and runs scored.
2
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:24 pm to Mulerider
fun debate....
Ok... I will cut it down... us Deaf folks are a little winded when we write.
Of course the more a person is on base the more runs he scores. There's no argument there. The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher, not the hitter, and the predictor must first be the pitcher's desire to walk the batter, or inability to keep from throwing four balls. If that does not happen, the OBP means nothing whatsoever.
We can argue to the cows come home, but let me just ask you this.. …
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Which one do you send out there to pinch hit?
Ok... I will cut it down... us Deaf folks are a little winded when we write.
Of course the more a person is on base the more runs he scores. There's no argument there. The OBP, though, is more influenced by the opposing pitcher than by the hitter himself. The pitcher either throws four balls intentionally or unintentionally, and the batter passively lets them go by and gets on base.
There is no guarantee, though, that there will be four balls to let go by. It is totally dependent on the pitcher, not the hitter, and the predictor must first be the pitcher's desire to walk the batter, or inability to keep from throwing four balls. If that does not happen, the OBP means nothing whatsoever.
We can argue to the cows come home, but let me just ask you this.. …
As for the hypothetical situations I mentioned..if you are coaching, and the game goes into the seventh inning, the opposing pitcher has not walked anyone. You have to pinch hit for one hitter who has struck out four times.
You have two players to choose from. One is a .330 hitter with a .430 OBP. The other is a .415 hitter with a .425 OBP.
Which one do you send out there to pinch hit?
Posted on 5/31/17 at 6:27 pm to Mulerider
I am so pumped for tomorrow.
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