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re: UF Series Takeaways
Posted on 3/28/17 at 9:01 am to LSURussian
Posted on 3/28/17 at 9:01 am to LSURussian
LINK
Here is what you are looking for. Run expectancy and the probability of scoring >0
For this weekends exact situation:
0 outs; runner on 2B
Run expectancy: 1.13
>0 run probability: 0.633
1 out; runner on 3B
Run expectancy: 0.96
>0 run probability: 0.667
ETA: These stats are from MLB seasons 1984-1994. Others have done their own compilation with more recent data and the numbers have come out very similar. Most believe the "steroid era" began in 1994 as well, fwiw. Just thought I would point this out since they don't match perfectly with the data from my first link.
Here is what you are looking for. Run expectancy and the probability of scoring >0
For this weekends exact situation:
0 outs; runner on 2B
Run expectancy: 1.13
>0 run probability: 0.633
1 out; runner on 3B
Run expectancy: 0.96
>0 run probability: 0.667
ETA: These stats are from MLB seasons 1984-1994. Others have done their own compilation with more recent data and the numbers have come out very similar. Most believe the "steroid era" began in 1994 as well, fwiw. Just thought I would point this out since they don't match perfectly with the data from my first link.
This post was edited on 3/28/17 at 9:08 am
1
Posted on 3/28/17 at 9:14 am to ell_13
That last link is exactly what I was hoping to see. Thanks!
Since the chart you linked to is for Major League games played from 1984 to 1994, the only unknown variable is the difference in the average major league player's running speed back then vs. the average college player's speed today. (I'm ignoring Nolan Cain coaching third base.....)
Maybe that's what you can do in your spare time, ell. Put together a statistical analysis from the last 10 years of D1 college games.
Since the chart you linked to is for Major League games played from 1984 to 1994, the only unknown variable is the difference in the average major league player's running speed back then vs. the average college player's speed today. (I'm ignoring Nolan Cain coaching third base.....)
Maybe that's what you can do in your spare time, ell. Put together a statistical analysis from the last 10 years of D1 college games.
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