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re: UF Series Takeaways
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:33 am to LSU Groupee
Posted on 3/28/17 at 7:33 am to LSU Groupee
In which situation are you more likely to score at least one run? Hint: It's with a runner at 3B and 1 out.
You aren't saying anything to contradict my point that bunting in the last inning or extras when you need just one run is statistically the correct call.
You aren't saying anything to contradict my point that bunting in the last inning or extras when you need just one run is statistically the correct call.
This post was edited on 3/28/17 at 7:34 am
2
Posted on 3/28/17 at 8:49 am to ell_13
quote:
In which situation are you more likely to score at least one run? Hint: It's with a runner at 3B and 1 out.
Ell, your statement does not agree with the stat Groupee posted, quoted below.
quote:
Scoring from second with none out has a run expectancy of 1.228. Scoring from third with one out has a run expectancy of .980.
I don't know if his stat is accurate, or like 78.6575% of statistics quoted on the internet, it's just made up.
My brief readings of Sabermetrics says the overriding principle to baseball is conserving the only rules-limiting resource to scoring, 27 outs in a regulation game.
So, giving up one of those 27 outs should only be done to increase chances of scoring, or, to decrease chances of giving up more outs, i.e., a double play.
Groupee, could you post a link or cite a source for the numbers you gave above? Much appreciated.
Posted on 3/28/17 at 10:33 am to ell_13
quote:
bunting in the last inning or extras when you need just one run is statistically the correct call.
You mean other than the fact that a run expectancy is greater to not bunt than it is to bunt?
Bunting in that situation is not the statistical play to success that you are implying and not bunting isn't some kind of poor baseball decision. In the 9th when you need a run to continue, you don't sacrifice an out to get more into scoring position when you are already in scoring position. It's just baseball common sense and the stats I pointed out show it.
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