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re: Official Sweet 16 Thread

Posted on 3/25/17 at 12:02 am to
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
111305 posts
Posted on 3/25/17 at 12:02 am to
quote:

It's the only play that keeps you from getting beat by the only play that can beat you. I'd rather go to 2OT than lose on a 3 like that. The team with the ball last down 2 or less has the advantage.

Based on his FT%, there's a 61% chance he hits 2 free throws, so a 61% chance you're going to 2OT.

What do you think the FG% was on the odds of hitting that shot? 25%, at the absolute highest.


Even if you say the odds of winning in OT are 50%, that still is not as high of an EV than letting him shoot the 3, pretty sure my math is on point there.
Posted by Crow Pie
Neuro ICU - Tulane Med Center
Member since Feb 2010
25459 posts
Posted on 3/25/17 at 12:06 am to
I can only guess he means Florida should have fouled with 6 seconds left in regulation up by 3 because that makes since
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