re: Gun to your head, you MUST go Offense at 11. Who do you pick?

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But but but Terrell Suggs!!!!1111 

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Shuttle times

Vic Beasley: 4.15

Von Miller: 4.06

Khalil Mack: 4.18

Demarcus Ware: 4.07

Justin Houston 4.37

J.J. Watt 4.21












Jarvis Jones: 4.71

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SackSEER’s other workout metric is the short shuttle run. The drill measures change-of-direction speed, burst, and hip flexibility, which are understandably important to rushing the passer. DeMarcus Ware had a jaw-dropping short shuttle of 4.07 seconds, Aaron Schobel ran the shuttle in 4.03 seconds, and Kyle Vanden Bosch ran the shuttle in 4.08 seconds. No elite edge rusher has emerged from any round of the NFL Draft since at least 1999 with a short shuttle slower than 4.42 seconds.

The importance of the short shuttle appears to be a well-kept secret. There is no significant correlation between draft position and the short shuttle, which suggests that teams basically ignore it. In contrast, research suggests that teams put a fair amount of weight on 40- yard dash times when drafting edge rushers - more weight than any other workout number. Although there is some relationship between the 40-yard dash and pass rushing success, the 40-yard dash is collinear with both the vertical leap and the short shuttle and does not materially increase the strength of the regression when introduced into the model. Stated more simply, the 40- yard dash is only useful in projecting edge rushers to the extent that it identifies prospects who already have good vertical leaps and short shuttle times.

A great example of the short shuttle’s predictive power relative to the 40-yard dash is Terrell Suggs. Suggs had a phenomenal collegiate sack record, but ran a number of 40-yard dashes at his pro day and only managed to score a poor average of 4.88 seconds. Suggs’ poor 40 time was widely reported (as well as his attendant drop in "draft stock") and it was a mere footnote that Suggs had, on the same day, logged a respectable 4.33-second short shuttle time. Ultimately, the Baltimore Ravens were rewarded handsomely for not overly relying on Suggs’ 40-yard dash.

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LINK