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re: Are we at a generational housing peak?
Posted on 3/11/17 at 9:49 am to autodd03
Posted on 3/11/17 at 9:49 am to autodd03
I think the big cities are going to appreciate well, especially prime parts as people move towards the large cities more. I dont know how much value the suburbs will have moving forward. People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring. When I was a kid everyone wanted to live in katy,spring,the woodlands in these big sprawling homes but now everyone I know seems to want to an inner city townhome that has a better location.
I just remember as a kid always going 30-45 min in a car with my parents to visit friends all over houston and today none of my friends live outside the loop. Nobody seems to care that you can get 4000 sq ft in kingwood or spring with a yard 45 min away for the same price as a 2000 sq ft townhome in the city without a yard. The younger generation just doesn't seem to care about the things the older generation did in terms of real estate.
I just remember as a kid always going 30-45 min in a car with my parents to visit friends all over houston and today none of my friends live outside the loop. Nobody seems to care that you can get 4000 sq ft in kingwood or spring with a yard 45 min away for the same price as a 2000 sq ft townhome in the city without a yard. The younger generation just doesn't seem to care about the things the older generation did in terms of real estate.
This post was edited on 3/11/17 at 9:56 am
3
Posted on 3/11/17 at 10:22 am to dabigfella
Livingston and Ascension have multiple factors that will continue to support their markets as suburbs in the 5-Parish Metro BR area.
1.) There is a metric shite ton of grant money on its way over the next 12-18 months to the aforementioned 5 Parish Metro BR area through FEMA and other forms of federal assistance to elevate and reconstruct homes. They'll be freshly remodeled and elevated out of the flood zone in a desirable location with good schools and preferable forms of #2....
2.) Local Government. Between Chauna Banks, Denise Marcelle, newly minted mayor Sharon Weston Broome, people are going to soon see attempts at wealth redistribution and focus on NBR that don't appeal to anyone outside of those areas. Increases in taxation, money grabs, and boondoggle social programs and public invest,wants will continue to drive people to LP/AP and-more and more-the Tangipahoa Parish area.
3.) Public Schools. They get a bad rap, but LPPSS is one of the better public systems in the state, and far more preferable to many than the shite show that is EBRPPS and even AP, as well (though just how much more is debatable I agree). LP for example is having DSHS completely rebuilt. Live Oak just opened a massive brand new HS less than 5 years ago, and Walker HS is in the midst of a $25,000,000 expansion of an already 5A school. There is a significant investment of tax dollars here into public education and we see good outcomes as a result educationally.
It isn't Catholic High and it's not U-High. But when you don't have to know someone or get your kids into Pre-K to get them into U-High or pay thousands in tuition to get them into relatively decent public schools, the savings are significant.
3.) Rural Development. RD Loans are the only 100% financing option that's stuck around through the Recession. LP/AP continued demarcation on census maps as Rural Areas mean that young homeowners-the backbone of a community's future tax base-will gravitate towards them not only because of cheaper educational options but cheaper homeownership costs and qualification. East Baton Rouge outside of a few slivers down Greenwell Springs and Tiger Bend simply can't offer 100-102% financing based on appraised value and not just sale price.
So at least locally I see a healthy market with continued appreciation.
1.) There is a metric shite ton of grant money on its way over the next 12-18 months to the aforementioned 5 Parish Metro BR area through FEMA and other forms of federal assistance to elevate and reconstruct homes. They'll be freshly remodeled and elevated out of the flood zone in a desirable location with good schools and preferable forms of #2....
2.) Local Government. Between Chauna Banks, Denise Marcelle, newly minted mayor Sharon Weston Broome, people are going to soon see attempts at wealth redistribution and focus on NBR that don't appeal to anyone outside of those areas. Increases in taxation, money grabs, and boondoggle social programs and public invest,wants will continue to drive people to LP/AP and-more and more-the Tangipahoa Parish area.
3.) Public Schools. They get a bad rap, but LPPSS is one of the better public systems in the state, and far more preferable to many than the shite show that is EBRPPS and even AP, as well (though just how much more is debatable I agree). LP for example is having DSHS completely rebuilt. Live Oak just opened a massive brand new HS less than 5 years ago, and Walker HS is in the midst of a $25,000,000 expansion of an already 5A school. There is a significant investment of tax dollars here into public education and we see good outcomes as a result educationally.
It isn't Catholic High and it's not U-High. But when you don't have to know someone or get your kids into Pre-K to get them into U-High or pay thousands in tuition to get them into relatively decent public schools, the savings are significant.
3.) Rural Development. RD Loans are the only 100% financing option that's stuck around through the Recession. LP/AP continued demarcation on census maps as Rural Areas mean that young homeowners-the backbone of a community's future tax base-will gravitate towards them not only because of cheaper educational options but cheaper homeownership costs and qualification. East Baton Rouge outside of a few slivers down Greenwell Springs and Tiger Bend simply can't offer 100-102% financing based on appraised value and not just sale price.
So at least locally I see a healthy market with continued appreciation.
Posted on 3/11/17 at 11:35 am to dabigfella
quote:
I think the big cities are going to appreciate well, especially prime parts as people move towards the large cities more. I dont know how much value the suburbs will have moving forward. People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring. When I was a kid everyone wanted to live in katy,spring,the woodlands in these big sprawling homes but now everyone I know seems to want to an inner city townhome that has a better location.
There is still one aspect that will keep the suburbs in demand and limit somewhat the price growth of the urban core.
K-12 education.
Unless things have recently changed, HISD, outside of the magnet schools, still sucks. And private schools inside the loop are still very, very expensive.
So as all these people move inside the loop and eventually have kids, are they going to be able to continue, with their increased earnings, to pay both the ever-increasing property tax, as well as drop 15K a year per kid for private school?
Some will, of course.
I don't think prices will fall... because even if these new parents do move out to the better school districts, there will be younger, kid-free adults who will move into the urban core.
Even when I left Houston at the end of 2011, the downtown area still sucked pretty bad. But when I was there last summer for a weekend series at Minute Maid, I was stunned to see everything they had going on.
Posted on 3/12/17 at 8:54 pm to dabigfella
quote:i agree with everything you said, but by "people" I think you mean single, young professionals, young couples with no kids. My wife and I lived in the heights . We moved out to Katy because of the schools, not the bars ;-) . We are OT poor, so $15k-$20k a year for private school in the area was out the question. The demographics of the public schools in the Houston inner city (poor, kids from unwed mothers, behavior problems , unrulely classes, substandard teachers) were not something we wanted our daughters to be going to class with.
People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring
This post was edited on 3/12/17 at 9:22 pm
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