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re: Largest Dam in the Country at risk to fail EDIT- no immediate danger
Posted on 2/14/17 at 10:37 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Posted on 2/14/17 at 10:37 pm to Wishnitwas1998
So in the end, nothing really bad happened. Whatever risk decision was made, it was fine.
3
Posted on 2/14/17 at 10:43 pm to C
It may or may not be over. The area is expecting 8-10" of rain between now and over the weekend
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:40 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
The long-term forecast has rainfall totals withing the watershed that are showing the exact spot where Lake Oroville watershed is located will get 11.62 inches of rain over the next 10 days, the most accumulated rainfall in the entire western USA:
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:46 pm to TigerTatorTots
Think about how amazing of a season Napa and Sonoma are going to have!
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:46 pm to TigerTatorTots
This is a crazy story...I expect this thread to go for awhile. With all the rain on the way, I'm not sure I could come back home and sleep if I was down stream from that thing.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:51 pm to eye65
quote:
I'm not sure I could come back home and sleep if I was down stream from that thing.
I'd actually come into town, pack my shite, get some bomb arse flood isurance and bounce. No way I am sticking around town with another system getting ready to roll through...
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:55 pm to TigerTatorTots
Holy shite
Posted on 2/15/17 at 5:59 pm to TigerTatorTots
That looks like one huge Pineapple Express headed for Cali with a bulls-eye on the dam.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:01 pm to C
quote:So running a red light is fine with you as long as you miss everyone in the intersection?
Whatever risk decision was made, it was fine.
This post was edited on 2/15/17 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:03 pm to eye65
Yea, things are slowly down right now in terms of news coverage. However, I bet those officials and engineers have a puckered a-hole trying to do quick fixes before the weekend's rain starts pouring into the reservoir. This event should pick up some steam early next week
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:17 pm to TigerTatorTots
This has the makings for a true disaster
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:19 pm to TigerTatorTots
Kern. Can't wait.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:33 pm to TigerTatorTots
that's maganificent
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:40 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Yikes. That's approaching criminal negligence. I would hate to be the guy that stamped that design. If this thing fails I suspect he'll be in front of a jury.
All signs point to them doing a pretty damn good job throughout all of this tbh. The dam met FERC guidelines.. resources are finite.. and it is absolutely obvious that most resources should be used to ensure the integrity of the primary and auxiliary spillway instead of the emergency spillway.
The dam has been around since 1968 and the additional spillways have never been used.. you don't plan for 1,000-year events. You react to them.
This post was edited on 2/15/17 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:48 pm to bmy
I hate the "1000" year excuse. We have been measuring precipitation in North America for about 150 years. We have no idea of what a 1000 year rain event is or is not. We tell the public that in an attempt to alleviate fear, knowing that we have no real idea. Mankind has always been arrogant and over confident when it comes to Mother Nature. That will never change.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 6:54 pm to C
California reaps what it sows.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 7:00 pm to michael corleone
quote:
I hate the "1000" year excuse. We have been measuring precipitation in North America for about 150 years. We have no idea of what a 1000 year rain event is or is not. We tell the public that in an attempt to alleviate fear, knowing that we have no real idea. Mankind has always been arrogant and over confident when it comes to Mother Nature. That will never change.
There is a tremendous amount of data to base it on. ~54,750 data points per station over 150 years... 10 stations per state that could experience significantly different recurrence intervals.. 27.3 million data points
It is quite obvious that we cannot accurately create 500 or 1,000 year frequency estimates. 100-year is quite useful. My point is that you do not build a dam based on "wrath of god" events. A fricking meteor could hit the dam and cause it to burst.. but you can't plan for it nor should you.
This post was edited on 2/15/17 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 2/15/17 at 7:07 pm to michael corleone
quote:
I hate the "1000" year excuse. We have been measuring precipitation in North America for about 150 years. We have no idea of what a 1000 year rain event is or is not. We tell the public that in an attempt to alleviate fear, knowing that we have no real idea
The term "1000 year event" is an extrapolation based on probability. Similar to the likelihood of any particular number coming up on a throw of dice is one in six, although you could conceivably throw the same number several times in a row.
Posted on 2/15/17 at 7:18 pm to michael corleone
quote:sigh.....
I hate the "1000" year excuse. We have been measuring precipitation in North America for about 150 years. We have no idea of what a 1000 year rain event is or is not. We tell the public that in an attempt to alleviate fear, knowing that we have no real idea. Mankind has always been arrogant and over confident when it comes to Mother Nature. That will never change
Posted on 2/15/17 at 7:26 pm to aVatiger
Having large amounts of rain doesn't mean much for grape harvests.
Eta: doesn't mean good grape harvests.
Eta: doesn't mean good grape harvests.
This post was edited on 2/15/17 at 7:27 pm
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