re: How many dems here have already convinced themselves that he'll lose reelection?

I think its natural if you really root for one candidate or another to think your opponent will lose the next time around, you see his flaws and ignore his positives.

I think its way too early to say. He had some structural advantages that he would lose in 2020, such as not having a record. He would also gain the power of incumbency.

Its not unrealistic to think that he will face a competitive primary too, although the last time we saw an incumbent face a real challenge was LBJ. So maybe not.