re: Hardball Times projects five players to be inducted into the Baseball HOF

This is huge, and great news. The biggest problem with Hall voting right now is the huge backlog of worthy candidates makes it that borderline guys fall of the ballot before they get a fair hearing. Far from being watered down, it has never been harder to get into the Hall.



Only 6.9% of eligible at bats in 1989 went to a Hall of Famer. Now, it was probably too high in 1929 when it was over 23%, but it does show how the gates have slammed shut.

Let's put it like this: if we look at JAWS, the WAR-based system for looking at Hall worthiness, the following players on the ballot all have a career JAWS higher than the HOF average of players already inducted. that means they don't just meet the minimum standard, they would literally RAISE the standard of the Hall, as they are above the average Hall of Famer:

Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, Edgar, Mussina, Larry Walker, Pudge, and Manny.

That's right, you could fill out a full 10-man ballot, and every guy on it would be above the Hall of Fame average statistical standard at his position. Electing five guys this time makes it more likely the other guys get in because it reduces the crowd on the ballot.

Also, Bud Selig getting in the special committee opens the floodgates for the steroid players. We're gonna let Bud in, but not the players he let use and not only didn't punish, but tacitly approved. I think Bonds and Clemens will get in NEXT year due to Selig's induction, the ballot purge, and a glut of candidates getting in.