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re: This team is not as bad as people are saying.

Posted on 10/31/16 at 11:50 am to
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 10/31/16 at 11:50 am to
Yes, they will revert to the mean and get better but AD will revert to the mean and get worse, no?

Do we really expect 38 points per game? 13 FTA's per game? Of course not

If you use revert to mean for the other guys, you gotta use it for AD too
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116457 posts
Posted on 10/31/16 at 11:59 am to
That's true, but having a more balanced roster with multiple guys scoring more efficiently is a more sustainable win model than one guy going crazy and everyone else sucking.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61615 posts
Posted on 10/31/16 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Do we really expect 38 points per game?


Why not? You or Ryan pointed out on the podcast that he's not even being that efficient, his scoring is coming from such a high usage rate and the

quote:

13 FTA's per game?


Cousins and Harden averaged 10.2 per game last year. So AD averages 35 instead of 38 and we hopefully start knocking down a few more 3s per game to make up for it.

quote:

If you use revert to mean for the other guys, you gotta use it for AD too


Logically you'd think he'd come back down to earth and average a mere 32ish, how could he be much better than 14-15 Westbrook trying to will OKC to the playoffs? But there probably isn't a better team for taking a player out of a game than the Spurs. Who else is going to have an answer for him? This isn't like Westbrook/Harden where there are 10+ perimeter defenders in the league that are capable of slowing them down. Nobody except maybe LeBron is built to stop the AD we saw in the first 2 games. Team defense might be the only way to slow down AD and there are only so many good team defenses out there. It will probably be closer to 32 than 35 by the time Jrue comes back, but 35 would not be surprising to me.
This post was edited on 10/31/16 at 12:12 pm
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