re: What do you attribute the migration change to?

Basically the point that has been made. On a localized level, pressure isn't going to affect the flyway migration. But, on a landscape level, it could affect it, to a degree.

The thing is, it isn't as much of a factor as weather and food availability in agricultural fields

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Right, but the OP is about migration. Jumping from one side of a parish to another isn't a migration issue.

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Again, already stated. In fact, I even made that very same point on the second page.

Why are there three million birds here early? Cause we still have some food, they came here cause it was time to pick up and leave. Not because everything was snowed in.

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I don't really agree with this. You're telling me all these birds (a lot o jeveniles) say, aww shite man lets not fly to Venice because last year we got shot at? No way dude. Sure they may avoid areas once they are here and starting to rest, but I highly doubt what you're talking about changes their migration patterns.

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That's exactly what I'm saying. Migration is a product of evolution and Darwinism is very real. Young birds have evolved over time to follow certain flyways and migration patterns, and the non-inherent element of that migration involves following older birds. So eventually, the heavier pressure received by the older birds trickles down to young birds.

As Cowboy said, I think the point was clarified and made on the second page. I don't believe it's a major contributing factor to the change in migration at all, but it certainly has an impact, and the scale of that impact is directly related to the scale of pressure. Again, I've seen all of this firsthand. As you stated yourself, you don't hunt a heavily pressured area, so I understand the skepticism.

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Right, but the OP is about migration. Jumping from one side of a parish to another isn't a migration issue.

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Again, and this is entirely hypothetical, but depending on the scale of the pressure it could certainly become a migration issue. One side of a particular parish to the other, then out of that parish entirely, then out of the region entirely.

Obviously this contemplates a very large scale of pressure, and I don't think that will ever happen. That said, if you change a bird's migration destination by 1 mile or 50 miles, it's a change nonetheless.

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Obviously this contemplates a very large scale of pressure, and I don't think that will ever happen. That said, if you change a bird's migration destination by 1 mile or 50 miles, it's a change nonetheless.

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Right, but I think the OP is about not as many ducks coming to La. period. I don't think pressure has anything to do with that.

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Right, but I think the OP is about not as many ducks coming to La. period. I don't think pressure has anything to do with that.

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At this point, I agree. I just don't ever want to see that happen hah.

Not every species responds to weather in the same manner. Obviously snow is not driving the migration of those early species, like gadwalls, teal, pintails, etc. Mallard migrations are driven by freezes and snow more so than other species, as has been pointed out previously.

These species also take advantage of various food sources, so yes, it stands to reason that the migration is, in part, driven by food demands. But why is it that when we have cold fronts early there are more birds than when we have mild Novembers? It isn't just coincidence. The birds are moving with colder weather and north winds, making the flight less draining. In winters where we have less cold fronts and milder winters, less birds come down.

So, it stands to reason that if in a colder year, more ducks are flying down, and in a milder year, less ducks are traveling down, it is primarily weather driven for most species.

If it were not, if it were primarily food driven for these species, then why is it that ducks can stay north of Louisiana for the majority of the winter during a mild winter, but have to fly down during a cold winter?

The food has become unavailable or the weather has become too harsh for those birds.

We had a ton of water early last year also. I'm not sure how the come up with these numbers, but they may have been a bit skewed due to scattered birds.

And probably not due to lack of food either.

Some of it is driven by photoperiod as well, just like other species of wildlife. Teal migration is one that is affected by the length of daylight. That is a factor in when the birds go back north to begin breeding, so it's very likely that it plays a part in the onset of migration.

As you stated earlier, different species migrate for different reasons. That said, I think you're overestimating a little on the effects of weather. I hate to borrow a liberal talking point, but I think climate (i.e. sustained periods of subfreezing temperature/snow and ice) has more to do with it than individual cold fronts.

Sure cold fronts move birds around, but it doesn't seem like they do in the numbers that they used to. I don't remember the last time I saw a "flight day" where you could walk outside and see wave after wave after wave of ducks and geese going over. Those that do come down don't seem to stick around and often times return north just as soon as things warm back up. I think there's plenty of evidence to show that as long as they have access to food and, just as important, water then a lot of birds are content to stay right where they are.

Any way you look at it, both factors have an effect and they pretty much go hand in hand.