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Message
re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:45 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/22/16 at 6:45 am to rds dc
quote:
The convective pattern this morning suggest that dry air is still an issue. Shear also looks unfavorable in the near term. Biggest concern at this point appears to be it getting trapped under a ridge and stalling out along the northern Gulf. It will be a tricky forecast with an active WPAC causing downstream issues for the models.
Thats not what we want. We want it to strengthen. The weaker it is, the more westward it will go.
1
Posted on 8/22/16 at 9:17 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Thats not what we want. We want it to strengthen. The weaker it is, the more westward it will go.
I don't really have any thoughts, at this time, as to what 99L might do down the road but did feel models were too aggressive early on. It wouldn't surprise me if the SE ridge ends up being more than models are currently showing. That could increase chances of it moving towards FL/ Gulf.
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