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What are the odds of LSU's football record for each possibility?
Posted on 7/6/16 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 7/6/16 at 3:31 pm
I've noticed several people make the argument that, since LSU is favored in every game, their most likely record is 12-0. This is obviously not true, so what are the odds?
The first list below shows my guess at the odds of LSU winning each game. The second list shows the 12 possible outcomes for the 2016 season and the odds of achieving each (based on the first table).
90% Wisconsin
99% Jacksonville State
90% Mississippi State
80% Auburn
85% Missouri
65% Florida
99% Southern Mississippi
85% Ole Miss
55% Alabama
65% Arkansas
99% South Alabama
75% Texas A&M
0-12 >> 0.0000000001%
1-11 >> 0.00000003%
2-10 >> 0.000003%
3-9 >> 0.0002%
4-8 >> 0.005%
5-7 >> 0.07%
6-6 >> 0.58%
7-5 >> 3.1%
8-4 >> 10.6%
9-3 >> 23.3%
10-2 >> 31.4%
11-1 >> 23.5%
12-0 >> 7.5%
As you can see, between 1 and 3 losses is nearly 80% likely. And the best guess is 10-2. Again, this is based on the odds posted above for each game, in my opinion. I couldn't find game odds that were easily understood (by me) so if anyone has better estimates of those individual game odds I can adjust.
The first list below shows my guess at the odds of LSU winning each game. The second list shows the 12 possible outcomes for the 2016 season and the odds of achieving each (based on the first table).
90% Wisconsin
99% Jacksonville State
90% Mississippi State
80% Auburn
85% Missouri
65% Florida
99% Southern Mississippi
85% Ole Miss
55% Alabama
65% Arkansas
99% South Alabama
75% Texas A&M
0-12 >> 0.0000000001%
1-11 >> 0.00000003%
2-10 >> 0.000003%
3-9 >> 0.0002%
4-8 >> 0.005%
5-7 >> 0.07%
6-6 >> 0.58%
7-5 >> 3.1%
8-4 >> 10.6%
9-3 >> 23.3%
10-2 >> 31.4%
11-1 >> 23.5%
12-0 >> 7.5%
As you can see, between 1 and 3 losses is nearly 80% likely. And the best guess is 10-2. Again, this is based on the odds posted above for each game, in my opinion. I couldn't find game odds that were easily understood (by me) so if anyone has better estimates of those individual game odds I can adjust.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 4:04 pm to Penrod
win 7 games or less is 0 percent.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 4:06 pm to Penrod
Good thing is 1 loss should be good enough for the playoff. Your odds looks pretty good to me.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 4:09 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
Good thing is 1 loss should be good enough for the playoff. Your odds looks pretty good to me.
not if our one loss is to Bama and they go undefeated in conference.
If that happens, we don't win the West. And I seriously doubt the committee will send two teams from the same conference to the playoffs. That would leave two Power 5 conference champions out in the cold. Politically, I don't think the committee could stomach that.
Posted on 7/6/16 at 5:12 pm to Penrod
I saw a thread on here that gave the actual game by game odds and updated per those. The odds of a good season got a little better than my original post.
I got the new game by game odds from this thread
84.5% Wisconsin
98.8% Jacksonville State
88.6% Mississippi State
71.2% Auburn
94.3% Missouri
71.1% Florida
98.2% Southern Mississippi
73.5% Ole Miss
65.7% Alabama (This sure seems high)
77.2% Arkansas
99.5% South Alabama
67.4% Texas A&M
0-12 >> 0.0000000001%
1-11 >> 0.00000003%
2-10 >> 0.000003%
3-9 >> 0.0002%
4-8 >> 0.005%
5-7 >> 0.07%
6-6 >> 0.51%
7-5 >> 2.8%
8-4 >> 9.8%
9-3 >> 22.1%
10-2 >> 31.2%
11-1 >> 25.0%
12-0 >> 8.7%
I got the new game by game odds from this thread
84.5% Wisconsin
98.8% Jacksonville State
88.6% Mississippi State
71.2% Auburn
94.3% Missouri
71.1% Florida
98.2% Southern Mississippi
73.5% Ole Miss
65.7% Alabama (This sure seems high)
77.2% Arkansas
99.5% South Alabama
67.4% Texas A&M
0-12 >> 0.0000000001%
1-11 >> 0.00000003%
2-10 >> 0.000003%
3-9 >> 0.0002%
4-8 >> 0.005%
5-7 >> 0.07%
6-6 >> 0.51%
7-5 >> 2.8%
8-4 >> 9.8%
9-3 >> 22.1%
10-2 >> 31.2%
11-1 >> 25.0%
12-0 >> 8.7%
Posted on 7/6/16 at 10:08 pm to Penrod
Odds for Mizzu should be around 90% and Arky around 70%.
Mizzu is overrated defensively (except that DL should have some top round guys on it) and their offense has gone to shite. Being at LSU doesn't give them a chance in their transition year.
While I think Arky will be great vs the run I still don't think they'll be good vs the pass. Minus the fluke sack attack vs us last year, they were horrible in pass rush as well. Harris had a good day vs them, but we just couldn't score much. Then their running situation is garbage and I expect to see the regress big time there. The passing will take a step back as well (I don't think it'll be a huge one though).
Mizzu is overrated defensively (except that DL should have some top round guys on it) and their offense has gone to shite. Being at LSU doesn't give them a chance in their transition year.
While I think Arky will be great vs the run I still don't think they'll be good vs the pass. Minus the fluke sack attack vs us last year, they were horrible in pass rush as well. Harris had a good day vs them, but we just couldn't score much. Then their running situation is garbage and I expect to see the regress big time there. The passing will take a step back as well (I don't think it'll be a huge one though).
Posted on 7/7/16 at 7:36 am to Datbayoubengal
quote:
Odds for Mizzu should be around 90% and Arky around 70%
Yeah, my guesses were 85% and 65%, so close to yours. The odds in my second post, from a different (hopefully more creditable source), were 94% and 77%. So your guesses were right in between.
Posted on 7/7/16 at 8:32 am to Penrod
I refuse to acknowledge an advantage over Bama until we actually beat them again
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