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U.S. Economy Is Better Than People May Feel: Cohn
Posted on 2/26/16 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 2/26/16 at 2:33 pm
Gary Cohn, president and chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs, discusses the U.S. economy, a global monetary policy and the impact of low interest rates.
Really great, somewhat basic, summary of what is going on with global fiscal policy and general struggles for growth in the last couple years.
I'm sure most already have this 30,000 ft view of the global economy but I thought he laid it out in a very straight-forward educational manner. Good watch.
Really great, somewhat basic, summary of what is going on with global fiscal policy and general struggles for growth in the last couple years.
I'm sure most already have this 30,000 ft view of the global economy but I thought he laid it out in a very straight-forward educational manner. Good watch.
This post was edited on 2/26/16 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 2/26/16 at 5:27 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Saw this today, I think he's right. People are looking for excuses that pain is on the horizon. Of course they can find it
Posted on 2/26/16 at 6:25 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Exchanges at Goldman Sachs is a very good podcast where GS executives share their views of the current news in the capital markets and the over all macro economy. Gary Cohn is a regular member there. He sounded very bullish in the latest podcast too.
Posted on 2/26/16 at 9:05 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Better Than People May Feel
That's the key phrase. It's all relative, right?
I like Gary Cohn, but if you listen closely to what he said, he's not exactly painting a rosy macroeconomic picture. He puts too much Keynesian emphasis on the stability of consumer spending and the theory of beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy for my tastes, but generally speaking, I think he's on target. But if on target means predicting yet another year of real U.S. GDP growth in the 1.5-2.0% range, then that's plain abysmal given where we are now relative to 2007... or 2000 for that matter.
So while I agree that his 1.5-2.0% range sounds reasonable to me, this in no way contradicts the notion that, in the realm of U.S. equities, we are in the midst of a corporate earnings recession that has yet to be priced into the market. I also think that in terms of asset price evaluations, he is toeing the way-too-bullish corporate line from Goldman Sachs. As I noted in a post about a month-and-a-half ago ( LINK), GS is really sticking their necks out on the chopping block here. I think they've been giving their big client investors some very bad advice lately.
oil research -- $200/barrel
Jan Hatzius -- need I say more?
Abby Joseph Cohen -- S&P 500 closes above 2,100 at 12/31/2016, and U.S. equity markets were just being "overly emotional" in January
David Cohn -- the drop in oil was "confusing" investors in January
equity research -- $120 EPS projections for 2016
Now it may be that Goldman Sachs is right about the bullish case they're selling investors asserting that U.S. equity prices will keep rising past 2,100 this year. I still think the market will drop below 1,800 this year, and even if it doesn't, I certainly don't think $120 EPS projections will hold up in a year of sub-2.0% GDP growth in the U.S., and even worse news from the rest of the world's economies.
This post was edited on 2/26/16 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 2/27/16 at 11:52 am to TigerDeBaiter
I think he has several excellent points but I don't think any of these guys EVER take into account debt levels. We have a consumer spending driven economy. If you immediately tripled the average household debt and tripled the national debt, he would sing the same song.
I never hear these guys say, "this is a BAD time" financially. They are like realtors. It's never a bad time to buy a house or sell a house.
I never hear these guys say, "this is a BAD time" financially. They are like realtors. It's never a bad time to buy a house or sell a house.
Posted on 2/28/16 at 6:47 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Our economy is doing well. Anyone that disagrees is not looking at the facts. We sold the most new cars in history last year. That does not happen if we have 42% unemployment like a certain orange wanna be politican is telling his uninformed crowds.
Posted on 2/28/16 at 8:43 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Of course Goldman Sachs thinks so. The current administration is lousy with their executives and lobbyists. I bet Halliburton thinks the Bush economy was great too.
The reality is that the labor participation rate is at a 40 year low, the median income has declined over the past seven years after also declining under W, health insurance premiums and deductibles are rising, and more people than ever are forgoing medical treatment due to cost.
The reality is that the labor participation rate is at a 40 year low, the median income has declined over the past seven years after also declining under W, health insurance premiums and deductibles are rising, and more people than ever are forgoing medical treatment due to cost.
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