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re: Fourth Pregnant Zika in the US confirmed: New York City
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:16 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:16 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:12/10,000 is what is diagnosed AT BIRTH. 25,000 are diagnosed a year in the US because at birth the doctor might not notice
Which would probably be more than expected on average, but exponentially more like the fear-mongering would lead us to believe. If we use US and it's vastly superior medicine and diagnostic tools as a baseline, there are 12 per 10,000 born with microcephaly.
Using that rate rate and Brazil's birth rate, we would expect about 3600 born with Microcephaly per year or 1200 in 4 months. So 1500 isn't that far outside the expectation.
2
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:17 pm to lsupride87
I have a feeling in Brazil the baby is born, sent home, and that is that.
Posted on 1/29/16 at 1:34 pm to lsupride87
quote:Yeah but I'm assuming these Brazilian cases are more likely to be birth cases. And I'm using more conservative estimates given the Zika virus is a relatively new phenomenon. Therefore, 1200 would be a lower bound of expectation, and you may be right, a higher number may be more realistic.
10,000 is what is diagnosed AT BIRTH. 25,000 are diagnosed a year in the US because at birth the doctor might not notice
BUT even using that lower bound, the evidence is not near as alarming as the fear-mongering would suggest.
This post was edited on 1/29/16 at 1:37 pm
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