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re: Why do you not go for 2 after that hail mary?

Posted on 1/16/16 at 10:58 pm to
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82099 posts
Posted on 1/16/16 at 10:58 pm to
probability to win at the end of regulation

2pt conversion has lower odds.

Posted by TotesMcGotes
New York, New York
Member since Mar 2009
27884 posts
Posted on 1/16/16 at 10:59 pm to
2 point conversion rate is about 50%.
Posted by bbrownso
Member since Mar 2008
8985 posts
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:01 pm to
46.2% win probability right?

All NFL teams converted 47.8% of two point conversions this year according to this LINK.

Also, according to that site, Green Bay was 4 of 6 in their two point attempts this season.
Posted by RedMustang
Member since Oct 2011
6855 posts
Posted on 1/16/16 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

he end of regulation 2pt conversion has lower odds.


Over the past five years, teams have converted 47.8% of two point plays. Odds would be VERY SLIGHTLY in favor of going for it. Although, I'm just guessing that the conversion rate is slightly lower for visiting teams. It's actually an extremely tough call.
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