re: Oil stocks...are you buying?

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What was essentially said was that OPEC would make production cuts if the rest of the world agreed to do the same, IIRC.

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Right, it's purely speculative at this point, but the rumors have been renewed again as of today I believe. But yes, same bs IMO.

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Even if that were to ever happen, either the overleveraged US shale producers or OPEC would screw everybody else.

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Agreed. But, when the cash runs out - and it will, things will reverse.

OPEC isn't the problem anyway, it's the shale players. They increased the supply drastically and thought demand would never drop. Kind of like the home builders/land developers during the housing bubble. If you build it they will come.... Well, they stopped eventually, a lot of people went bankrupt and assets were bought for pennies on the dollar.

So, same is going to happen here IMO. In the end I think shale production will be controlled by fewer larger players which will allow for the supply to be controlled more effectively - since their basis for operation will be much less.

That's my very amateur prediction anyway.

As far as a bottom, I called for $30 a long time ago, and think we are close to seeing a bottom. That doesn't mean it's going to go up necessarily.