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re: 2016 Non-GS Tennis Thread
Posted on 1/4/16 at 3:45 am to bayoucracka
Posted on 1/4/16 at 3:45 am to bayoucracka
quote:
I was looking at your 2015 thread and you mentioned how Ferrer always beats guys below him, but can't beat the top guys. Even after all these years, it seems the books still haven't caught on.
He was amazingly dependable in this regard -- and thus eminently gamble-able -- for a solid 4-5 year run. I'm not so sure he still has the gold medal in this category -- he had a few more upset losses in 2015 than normal (though they were all to guys who were more talented than their ranking gave them credit for).
I'm definitely on the lookout for guys who will carry that baton in the coming years. Milos Raonic is in the conversation. Steve Johnson is another guy who rarely gets upset. And Sam Querrey might not even be a human being, but some kind of hologram acting in accordance with statistical projections that dictate that he must lose in the third round of every tournament he enters.
Tennis abstract has a consistency metric you could check out. I like to filter them by upset rate (the percentage column). LINK
2
Posted on 1/4/16 at 4:40 am to SystemsGo
I see it hasn't been updated since June, but something is off with the numbers. I didn't look at the 2nd half of 2014, but Steve J was upset by Kukushkin in Miami. Since the update, he was upset no less than 7 times in the last half of 2015.
That said, I do find it interesting that the big servers seem to be more consistent. I would have guessed the opposite, since their matches are a lot closer and decided by 1 or 2 breaks or mini breaks. Apparently they have perfected the art of going for broke on returns and being more consistent in tiebreakers. Also, my personal experience is that I have less "off" days with my serve than any other part of my game.
I just bet on Groth after seeing that info. He might be a good one to follow going forward.
That said, I do find it interesting that the big servers seem to be more consistent. I would have guessed the opposite, since their matches are a lot closer and decided by 1 or 2 breaks or mini breaks. Apparently they have perfected the art of going for broke on returns and being more consistent in tiebreakers. Also, my personal experience is that I have less "off" days with my serve than any other part of my game.
I just bet on Groth after seeing that info. He might be a good one to follow going forward.
Posted on 1/4/16 at 4:55 am to SystemsGo
quote:
And Sam Querrey might not even be a human being
I laughed at this one. People joke about the big servers being bots, but that guy literally has no emotions. It's like he's perfectly content with being ranked in the top 100 and never striving to improve.
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