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re: Rumor: Houston Rockets seeing if there is a trade market for Ty Lawson
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:22 pm to theducks
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:22 pm to theducks
quote:please brother I don't even know what youre talking about..maybe if you had more to offer than
theducks
Keep back tracking some more...
I'd have an idea.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:30 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:But more often than not, a team with a better record is a better team, and therefore more difficult to beat.
Look at Lakers or the 6ers.. the Lakers have a better win % but are they a tougher opponent than the 6ers? Not necessarily
quote:More often than not it does, especially as the win % diff increases.
Just bc a team has a better win % doesn't mean that they are more difficult to win against
quote:No it's quite the opposite in fact.
Grade school common sense IMO.
quote:Again. In general, a tougher SOS = tougher to win. In fact, unless there is some crazy match-up issue, I can't think of a reason why it wouldn't be tougher.
A tougher SOS doesn't automatically mean tougher games to win
quote:You act like 1/4 season, especially when you're considering the entire league, is not a solid indicator of trends. It is in fact, enough to get accurate enough approximations to make hypotheses and predictions.
especially a SOS based off less than 1/4 of the season.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:38 pm to buckeye_vol
Seahawks and falcons are both 6-5 guess that means the opponent has he same chance of beating either team.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:45 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:You're arguing single exceptions, and I didn't say that every team with same record is equal, just comparable. BUT when you are talking about a large sample, it becomes much more robust. You're making a statistically ignorant and fallacious argument.
Seahawks and falcons are both 6-5 guess that means the opponent has he same chance of beating either team.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 5:52 pm to buckeye_vol
Nope. Sorry bro. And I didn't even introduce the possibility of injuries, days off between games, teams playing better or worse than their record at the time of the game, etc etc. SOS is a decent guide, I guess. But it ain't gospel like you're making it out to be. When HOU gets healthy and meshes they'll beat the .300 team 9 times of 10 and they'll beat the .350 team 9 times out of 10. Whether or not the SOS is higher or lower doesn't impact the results.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 6:33 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:This is noise though. A team's current record is an approximation of their "true record" with a standard error. Some are better some are worse, but when you aggregate what is essentially the mean of the mean, you get a pretty accurate approximation of the SOS.
Nope. Sorry bro. And I didn't even introduce the possibility of injuries, days off between games, teams playing better or worse than their record at the time of the game
quote:Not only is this nonsensical conjecture, it shows a complete lack of understanding basic math, and in particular, probability.
When HOU gets healthy and meshes they'll beat the .300 team 9 times of 10 and they'll beat the..350 team 9 times out of 10.
quote:Yes it does matter. You're just plain wrong.
Whether or not the SOS is higher or lower doesn't impact the results
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 6:35 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 6:55 pm to buckeye_vol
If A pro team plays one game against a HS TEAM and one game v a middle school team it doesn't matter that one team is better than the other. The result will be the same either way. So the strength of schedule doesn't impact the results. Maybe in your statistics class it does. In the real world nope.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:32 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Of course you can't compare the records at vastly different levels, but that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about teams at the same level, that all play each other. Even you're better than making such an irrelevant comparison.
If A pro team plays one game against a HS TEAM and one game v a middle school team it doesn't matter that one team is better than the other
quote:Not in your example, but within a league and level it does. There is a reason that LSU lost more games at the end of the season; their SOS was significantly more difficult than the beginning of the season.
So the strength of schedule doesn't impact the results.
quote:Prove this nonsense then.
In the real world nope.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:46 pm to buckeye_vol
Lies, damned lies, and statistics. you prove it. Show me with numbers how once in 10,000 times the middle school team will beat the pro team. Look I get it, You're a statistician. You don't have to jump in every thread and argue that middle school team has a chance to beat the pro team because its not statistically impossible. There are English teachers here who don't jump in and correct every misspelled word or bad sentence. This is a casual conversation, guys talking shite and shooting the shite about sports and you jump in with BS like margin of error. KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE there's a time a place for you to do what you do, it's not here IMO I don't mind taking about stats bro but you take it past the point of enjoyment.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 7:58 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:This is a strawman argument. Nobody is talking about anything BUT the NBA.
Show me with numbers how once in 10,000 times the middle school team will beat the pro team.
quote:Jeez maybe your hackery has no bounds.
You don't have to jump in every thread and argue that middle school team has a chance to beat the pro team be use its not statistically impossible.
quote:So when discussing quantifiable outcomes, it's BS to discuss their quantifiable properties? Wow.
This is a casual conversation about sports and you jump in with BS like margin of error.
quote:Well it was a very basic argument that playing teams with better records will naturally decrease in the probability of wins. It's a very simple argument, but you decided to ignorantly dismiss it and provide nothing but unsupported conjecture, such as your argument that they would win 9 out of 10 vs. a 0.300 AND a 0.350 team.
I don't mind taking about stats bro but you take it past the point of enjoyment
I prefer to fight ignorance with facts and logic, which in this case was rudimentary probability theory.
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:05 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
This is a strawman argument. Nobody is talking about anything BUT the NBA.
quote:
OK OK how about this.
HOU plays a team 10 times they beat 89% of the time and one team they beat 91% of the time. After 10 games explain to me how they don't beat each team 9 of 10 times?
quote:
So when discussing quantifiable outcomes, it's BS to discuss their quantifiable properties? Wow
Yes, do you bring up stats in every conversation where people are talking about the chances of something happeneing? Break out your trusty calculator?
quote:No no no.. you're insufferable.
Well it was a very basic argument that playing teams with better records will naturally decrease in the probability of wins. It's a very simple argument, but you decided to ignorantly dismiss it and provide nothing but unsupported conjecture.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:33 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Again. Who can THESE Houston Rockets--who are getting outscored by 6 points per game and have winning percentage of 0.389 winning--beat 9 times out of 10?
HOU plays a team 10 times they beat 89% of the time and one team they beat 91% of the time. After 10 games explain to me how they don't beat each team 9 of 10 times?
Depending on the exponent, Houston has an an expected win percentage (Pythagorean) of .277 to .31. Only 6 teams have a lower percentage. There isn't a team they would be expected to beat 9 times out of 10, let alone the .300 and .350 teams you described.
quote:When you makes such CONFIDENT PREDICTIONS like 9 out of 10, winning 60+ games, etc., the only valid way to counter (or verify) those predictions is with math and logic.
Yes, do you bring up stats in every conversation where people are talking about the chances of something happeneing? Break out your trusty calculator?
Are you telling me that you don't base your predictions on mathematical logic?
quote:And my wife, friends, and family would probably agree; however, I rather be insufferable with facts than any alternative without facts.
No no no.. you're insufferable
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:38 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Again. Who can THESE Houston Rockets--who are getting outscored by 6 points per game and have winning percentage of 0.389 winning--beat 9 times out of 10?
Bro just give me the odds this happens don't worry about the teams ok. We're talking about NBA basketball right so the teams are irrelevant for this, hell just assume Golden State. I want you to show me how the results of games are affected by SOS using these parameters.
10 games v team that you beat 89%
10 games v team that you beat 91%
What are the chances that you beat both teams 9 times if 10 games are played?
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 8:40 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:44 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:When HOU gets healthy and meshes they'll beat the .300 team 9 times of 10 and they'll beat the .350 team 9 times out of 10
Again. Who can THESE Houston Rockets--who are getting outscored by 6 points per game and have winning percentage of 0.389 winning--beat 9 times out of 10?
You ignore the bolded part on accident or only because it fits your argument? My statement assumes they won't be -6.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:52 pm to RTR America
Lol @ the Rockets and their "leader" James Harden.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 8:59 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Gets healthy? Besides Donatas Motiejunas, who is an average player, who else needs to get healthy? You could say that about a number of teams too, and some teams have an opportunity to even gain more in the health department (Cavs).
When HOU gets healthy and meshes
And meshing? It's not like you have a brand new core of players (like the Heat in 2010-2011, Houston a couple years back, and Cavs last year). Again, you could say the same thing about most of the league.
quote:In order to have an .900 win percentage against a .300 team, the Rockets would have to be a .800 team and a .830 team to beat a .350 team 9 out of 10.
.300 team 9 times of 10 and they'll beat the .350 team 9 times out of 10
In other words, the only team that would likely win 9/10 is Golden State, and Houston isn't anywhere near the Spurs, Cavs, and a handful of other teams, let alone the Warriors.
Again, there is no basis for our 9 out 10 prediction whatsoever. It's not even logical
This post was edited on 12/1/15 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:08 pm to buckeye_vol
Well D12 is about to start playing every night, that obviously makes a difference. Beverley has only played in a little more than a handful of games this season( I don't mean 5 literally, this is where I know you'll go look it up and point out that he's played in more games than that you stickler you). That's 3 starters from last years team that will soon be in the lineup every night who haven't been up until now.
Exaclty, which is why they'll play better when they get the 3 starters from last season playing every night. Which means that they HAVE been playing with new players this season up until now. Maybe you should familiarize yourself with the team before you try to act like you know what you're talking about. You rarely if ever see me commenting on CLE. Why? They aren't my team and I don't watch them every night.
OK whats the odds GSW wins 9/10 v a .300 team v a .350 team?
quote:
And meshing? It's not like you have a brand new core of players
Exaclty, which is why they'll play better when they get the 3 starters from last season playing every night. Which means that they HAVE been playing with new players this season up until now. Maybe you should familiarize yourself with the team before you try to act like you know what you're talking about. You rarely if ever see me commenting on CLE. Why? They aren't my team and I don't watch them every night.
quote:
In other words, the only team that would likely win 9/10 is Golden State,
OK whats the odds GSW wins 9/10 v a .300 team v a .350 team?
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:10 pm to Boomshockalocka
you have girl brains.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:19 pm to buckeye_vol
8 different starting lineups in 18 games.
meshing? Meshing?
yea the same squad has been together all year.
meshing? Meshing?
yea the same squad has been together all year.
Posted on 12/1/15 at 9:19 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:I don't have to be intimately familiar with a team to know that with the same core/star players, which is just about the same position every team is put in every year, that meshing doesn't explain such POOR performance. It is an excuse.
Maybe you should familiarize yourself with the team before you try to act like you know what you're talking about.
quote:Well you are often wrong about the team you cheer for (60+ wins; 15-5 after 20 games). The problem isn't "familiarity" it's your reasoning absent logic and evidence.
They aren't my team and I don't watch them every night.
quote:Probability GSW would 96.08% against a .300 team and 95.12% against a .350.
OK whats the odds GSW wins 9/10 v a .300 team v a .350 team?
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