re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS

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And the US Models continue to get their butts handed to them by the European

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The Euro has been rock solid with this system the past few days for sure but it hasn't been without its own issues in the tropics this season. The big problem here is that this is kind of a razors edge setup and small changes here and there can result in wildly different results. Euro nailed the slower and more SW track over the past couple of days and that made a huge difference down the road.

It appears that the superior vertical resolution and better data assimilation scheme of the Euro has made a big difference in this setup. The GFS shifted big towards the Euro last night at 00z with the huge special data dump but the extra data didn't even phase the Euro. It is an issue that won't go away until next generation of NOAA supercomputers come online. The NOAA modeling folks are well aware of the current shortcomings are doing everything they can with what we have. Even with the current limitations there is some really cool stuff cranking the testbed environments.