re: The First Team Has LSU at 7-5

They also went on to say that LSU is the hardest team in the country to predict. In their view, we could plausibly go 5-7 and miss a bowl game, or plausibly win the national championship. There's no other team in the country, in their view, where the range of realistically possible outcomes is wider.

I actually agree with that, though I would settle on a forecast that's more optimistic than theirs. I just don't see where we can be argued to be weaker than last year, when we went 8-4 in the regular season. OL, RB, and WR should all be at least as good. QB can't realistically get any worse, and could be significantly better. DB looks great, and LB should be at least as good as last year. I guess you could say DL is weaker, but we didn't get much out of that group last year. Combine all that with a little bit easier schedule, and I think 9-3, not 7-5, is the most logical forecast--with a real chance for better.

I guess the only logical counter-story would be if you think Chavis' departure is a devastating loss, and the defense will take a big step back for schematic reasons while the offense remains disappointing. That would get you to a 7-5 or worse season. That's not the way I see things playing out, but we'll see.