quote:
I feel almost certain that we all understand that expected values might not reflect actual values. Of course, a penny might not land on heads every other coin flip. Of course, a penny might land on heads 10 times in a row.

The purpose of a a preseason prediction is predict the expected outcome and, of course, it might not reflect the actual outcome. That is fundamental.

Well, you claimed your prediction is based on mathematical analysis and I am just pointing out where the analysis doesn't make much sense mathematically. Ever heard the quote "averages without variances are meaningless - or worse misleading"? You were trying to predict using mean value but totally ignored the small variance assumption this methodology based on. In your case, one single event's variance for many events is large enough to make the prediction based on mean value useless. For example, in 50% odd case the variable is as large as .25. What makes things much worse is that you are taking summation of these variables. Based on your assumption that these events are independent, if you ever heard of Bienayme formula you can calculate the variance of the summation variable which is the summation of all independent variance - that's huge! The variance of summation variable is large enough so that its mean value means a little better than nothing.

quote:
You are really trying HARD to throw mud in the water. The fact that Vegas uses, IN PART, the history of a team (previous games) to predict the result of future games is IRRELEVANT to the correlation between the odds/lines for a game and the outcome of that game. In short, the odds/lines for a game are highly predictive of the outcome of that game.

It seems I overestimate your level and you seems didn't understand what I was talking about. I was not arguing about whether an odd/line is correlated to event outcome at all. Let's put it in easy to understand way - after game X happened, will the the odd/line be adjusted for future games? Do you think using adjusted odd to calculate then leads to more actuate prediction at that point? If your answers to both problems are yes, then can you tell the difference between your independent events model and a different model that takes account for prior probabilities? Ever heard of the word random process?

quote:
This sentence makes zero sense.

In what universe are the pregame odds for a game different from the current odds for a game. I'd like to make wagers in that universe.

The relevant odds/lines for a game are always the pregame odds for the game. (Unless you made a bet on the game and want to collect.)

It seems you cannot even understand plain English without math. Your number is predicted using current, today's, 8/22/2015's odd for all games, and do you think the pregame odd before each game is exactly the same as current odd? If your predict is totally based on current odd, then the number doesn't mean much since the odds change a lot.

In summary, I don't have any problem with you doing some high school math exercise and call it your prediction. But I wouldn't calling it mathematical analysis - the method and model have some systematic flaws and leads to meaningless results. To me the model performance is probably similar to a dummy model that picks a random number from a few numbers.

This post was edited on 8/22/15 at 10:13 pm

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Posted by TheSexecutioner

Member since Mar 2011

5254 posts

Posted on 8/23/15 at 11:38 pm to nickbear

quote:
It seems you cannot even understand plain English without math. Your number is predicted using current, today's, 8/22/2015's odd for all games, and do you think the pregame odd before each game is exactly the same as current odd? If your predict is totally based on current odd, then the number doesn't mean much since the odds change a lot.

Your use of non-sense jargon that you don't understand almost hid how confused you were. Thanks for bringing this out to clear it up for everybody in plain terms.

quote:
Thus the pre-game odds can be a lot of different from current odds which makes the prediction inaccurate.

Why use pre-game odds? Why not half time odds? Pre-game odds would be different and thus inaccurate by that time by your logic..... His prediction is being made right now so of course he is going to use today odds. Jesus, this is truly remarkable. So many buffoons.

This post was edited on 8/23/15 at 11:43 pm

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Posted by Salviati

Member since Apr 2006

5696 posts

Posted on 8/24/15 at 10:13 am to nickbear

quote:
Well, you claimed your prediction is based on mathematical analysis and I am just pointing out where the analysis doesn't make much sense mathematically. Ever heard the quote "averages without variances are meaningless - or worse misleading"? You were trying to predict using mean value but totally ignored the small variance assumption this methodology based on. In your case, one single event's variance for many events is large enough to make the prediction based on mean value useless. For example, in 50% odd case the variable is as large as .25. What makes things much worse is that you are taking summation of these variables. Based on your assumption that these events are independent, if you ever heard of Bienayme formula you can calculate the variance of the summation variable which is the summation of all independent variance - that's huge! The variance of summation variable is large enough so that its mean value means a little better than nothing.

quote:
It seems I overestimate your level and you seems didn't understand what I was talking about. I was not arguing about whether an odd/line is correlated to event outcome at all. Let's put it in easy to understand way - after game X happened, will the the odd/line be adjusted for future games? Do you think using adjusted odd to calculate then leads to more actuate prediction at that point? If your answers to both problems are yes, then can you tell the difference between your independent events model and a different model that takes account for prior probabilities? Ever heard of the word random process?

quote:
It seems you cannot even understand plain English without math. Your number is predicted using current, today's, 8/22/2015's odd for all games, and do you think the pregame odd before each game is exactly the same as current odd? If your predict is totally based on current odd, then the number doesn't mean much since the odds change a lot.

In summary, I don't have any problem with you doing some high school math exercise and call it your prediction. But I wouldn't calling it mathematical analysis - the method and model have some systematic flaws and leads to meaningless results. To me the model performance is probably similar to a dummy model that picks a random number from a few numbers.

When you have some semblance of an understanding of the words you are using, come back and join the discussion.

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