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Message
re: James Harden wins The Players' NBA MVP award
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:00 pm to shel311
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:00 pm to shel311
Let me do some quick math for ya bro since you don't seem capable of doing it on your own.
Howard missed 41 games.
He averages 32 mpg being conservative.
Thats 1312 Minutes.
His win share per 48 in HOU is .154
1312 * .154 = 202.05 Take that and divide by 48 and you get 4.21 ... Pretty close to 5 wins if you ask me.
Now that's if you go by win shares.
Or you can throw win shares out the window and know just by watching the games that Dwight howard has more of an impact on wins that Jrue Holiday. Or 41 games of Howard v 13 games of Davis.
Howard missed 41 games.
He averages 32 mpg being conservative.
Thats 1312 Minutes.
His win share per 48 in HOU is .154
1312 * .154 = 202.05 Take that and divide by 48 and you get 4.21 ... Pretty close to 5 wins if you ask me.
Now that's if you go by win shares.
Or you can throw win shares out the window and know just by watching the games that Dwight howard has more of an impact on wins that Jrue Holiday. Or 41 games of Howard v 13 games of Davis.
2
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:03 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:So, you admit saying 5 is a conservative estimate is wrong, is that what you're saying? If so, I agree.
Take that and divide by 48 and you get 4.21 ... Pretty close to 5 wins if you ask me
Now do AD and Jrue and tell me how far over 5 games it goes, and then explain why you ONLY agree with the one that supports the HOU player but using the exact same calculations for the Pels players, you don't agree with.
Soooo boxed in right now.
Posted on 7/21/15 at 2:19 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:He averaged 29.8 last season so just adding 2.2 minutes per game is not in line with the most applicable data.
Let me do some quick math for ya bro since you don't seem capable of doing it on your own.
Howard missed 41 games.
He averages 32 mpg being conservative.
Thats 1312 Minutes.
quote:Again, his WS/48 last season was .140; this is the applicable data.
His win share per 48 in HOU is .154
quote:Since you like back of a napkin math, why don't we get an estimate of the wins he would have added.
Howard missed half of last season and they win 56 games. If they only win 5 more of the 41 games that D12 missed(conservative estimate), well that gives them 61.
In the 41 games that Dwight played, Dwight had 3.6 Win Shares. Using that, we can estimate that he would contribute to 3.6 more wins in the 41 games he didn't play.
Now if you use Estimated Wins Added (EWA), we see that he added 5.3 wins, we can estimate that he would add 5.3 more wins, which is in line with your estimate.
So your estimate of 5 wins in reasonable; however, it is NOT a conservative estimate. 5 wins would be near the upper bound.
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